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  • tiger_josef tiger_josef • Jan 17, 2013 4:26 PM Flag

    Final Option Strategy for the January/s - Binary Event Open Disclosure

    Due to the Price Action this last week, my final Strategy going into the event tomorrow morning is a Long Strangle using profits from the Call Option Sold (Portions of $9 and all $10 Strike Calls), the List below does not include the $9 that I need for Exercise tomorrow.

    Long Strangle with a 5 Call $11 : 3 Put $10.5 Ratio

    Price | 11 Calls | 10.5 Puts | Total
    7.00 | 500 | 300 | $78,943
    7.25 | 500 | 300 | $71,443
    7.50 | 500 | 300 | $63,943
    7.75 | 500 | 300 | $56,443
    8.00 | 500 | 300 | $48,943
    8.25 | 500 | 300 | $41,443
    8.50 | 500 | 300 | $33,943
    8.75 | 500 | 300 | $26,443
    9.00 | 500 | 300 | $18,943
    9.25 | 500 | 300 | $11,443
    9.50 | 500 | 300 | $3,943
    9.75 | 500 | 300 | $(3,557)
    10.00 | 500 | 300 | $(11,057)
    10.25 | 500 | 300 | $(18,557)
    10.50 | 500 | 300 | $(26,057)
    10.75 | 500 | 300 | $(26,057)
    11.00 | 500 | 300 | $(26,057)
    11.25 | 500 | 300 | $(13,557)
    11.50 | 500 | 300 | $(1,057)
    11.75 | 500 | 300 | $11,443
    12.00 | 500 | 300 | $23,943
    12.25 | 500 | 300 | $36,443
    12.50 | 500 | 300 | $48,943
    12.75 | 500 | 300 | $61,443
    13.00 | 500 | 300 | $73,943
    13.25 | 500 | 300 | $86,443
    13.50 | 500 | 300 | $98,943
    13.75 | 500 | 300 | $111,443
    14.00 | 500 | 300 | $123,943
    14.25 | 501 | 300 | $136,768
    14.50 | 502 | 300 | $149,643
    14.75 | 503 | 300 | $162,568
    15.00 | 504 | 300 | $175,543
    ==================

    Will give some of the profit back if the Stock Trades between $9.75 and $11.50

    I have the day off tomorrow, let's hope for the best and we get the approval

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

    Sort:  Newest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • tiger_josef tiger_josef • Jan 19, 2013 9:38 AM Flag

      Options Evidence,

      This was the final Strategy going into Friday

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • vitadox vitadox • Jan 17, 2013 8:10 PM Flag

      Tiger' ... just want to confirm that your Final Option Strategy expires tomorrow ...? or February?
      I hope that CHMP decision will be PR'd in time to trigger ample upwards pps movement?
      My expectation is either APPROVAL or DEFERRED DECISION until the next monthly meeting ...
      but then I banked on Lorquess' approval at the first AdCom.
      I'm pulling for your $175k payday.

    • leviwilliams100 leviwilliams100 • Jan 17, 2013 6:22 PM Flag

      You have lost all crediblity!

    • mpwvp2000 mpwvp2000 • Jan 17, 2013 6:10 PM Flag

      I think what a lot of people here are missing is that there has not been any real sagnificant hype on ARNA..I think the the real kicker will be some analyst upgrades that will follow after the EU approval. I know, I've said this before but there has not been any coverage on this stock since 2010. With all the great progress that's already happened since 2012, this stock is overdue for its decent sized pop. The only reason why I can see there has been been no coverage is because money managers want to get in first before they hype the #$%$ out of it. I still see a possible $5.00 move to the upside.. Never underestimate the greed of the market and the johnny come latley stock chasers.. Everyone said apple would never go above 300,400,600, and look at where they've been. VVUS has run out of steam, it's been upgraded to the hilt and yet the stock is in the dumps right now..ARNA has a better product, bigger market, and no upgrades. All the recipes for a nice fat pop ! One thing I never do is believe I know more then the market, the market is bigger and more powerful then all of us and every company that runs money. So kick back relax and enjoy the trend up.. By the way the chart still looks great and is intact for more upside. For all we know? Those 52 million shares could have been shorted near the recent high area of 12-13 ? Maybe that's where the pain gets really inflicted. The company is poised to make more money today then then is has been in the last few years. GL TO ALL !!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • private_wealth private_wealth • Jan 17, 2013 5:13 PM Flag

      Tiger - you seem like a nice guy and I really do wish you well in your trade. I dont see any volatility in the options pricing for tomorrow. Looking at the Jan 10 calls pricing at 10.52 asked, there simply isnt any volatilty expectewd with the stock trading at 10.45. The market isnt expecting anything to happen tomorrow .... I hope for your sake something crazy occurs at it goes up 8 points! Best of luck!

    • matese16 matese16 • Jan 17, 2013 5:03 PM Flag

      I considered reducing my position. Considering we haven't heard anything from the EU I'm a believer that no news is good news. I'm holding, have held, and will continue to hold past the EU.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • private_wealth private_wealth • Jan 17, 2013 4:44 PM Flag

      you will likely get the approval, tiger, unfortunately .... I dont think the stock is going to go anywhere you do OR of you dont ... the approval is going to come the market already knows it - its priced in already. The event will be IF its REJECTED - and I cannot see anywhere where that could happen.
      This thing is coming to market in the US in Q1 and in Europe in Q3/Q4, tomorrow is completely immaterial. Good luck!

    • vitadox vitadox • Jan 17, 2013 4:44 PM Flag

      thanks for showing your hand! a great way for others to learn.

    • iago4466 iago4466 • Jan 17, 2013 4:37 PM Flag

      Good luck, Tiger, I truly, truly hope it all works for you tomorrow, and indeed all for the good-guy ARNA longs who are regulars here (you know who you are). I am sure I will be flamed for this, but in the end my own personal decision on this binary event was to be reactive to what happens tomorrow and not to be anticipatory. We all have to make our own decisions and live with them, and I'm comfortable with that. Investing in ARNA was very good to me last year, and I preferred to preserve my gains and not shoot for more on this occasion. Being long through two FDA ADCOMs was stressful enough, frankly... Like I say, each to his or her own...

      Having said all of that, I really do hope CHMP gives a thumbs-up tomorrow and that all who have long positions make money.

      • 2 Replies to iago4466
      • respond_ia respond_ia • Jan 17, 2013 4:57 PM Flag

        I personally hesitated after the market action today, so ROLLED my Jan options to April, so lost, but we will see. I just could not let my Jan 9 and 10 in the money calls fade away if for some reason it goes the other way. Also I figured there are enough catalysts between now and April. I still have worthless calls Jan 11 and 12.50 calls.

      • patenright1 patenright1 • Jan 17, 2013 4:47 PM Flag

        from a long time shareholder who bought in 2's

        i didnt like the prices of the options - to me they were NOT pointing to big news today or tomorrow

        jan 11 calls bidding just 13 cents - cmon - should be way higher if EU news was coming that would push the stock to 12-14

        as a result i dumped all my shares (trading shares that is bought at 8.77) just before mkt close

        still hold my core shares from 2's

        that said i still have my jan 11 calls (same number of trading shares i dumped) to take advantage of any EU news tomorrow

        i dumped the trading shares as i feel the crooks will drive this below 10 tomorrow (assuming of course there is no EU news)

        chance it retests 9.6 range too ( fib 60% of the 8.6 - 11 move)

        i will re buy trading shares between 9.6 - 10 if i get the chance

        good luck all

 
ARNA
7.61Jun 19 4:00 PMEDT