This stock will basically trade between 8-9 dollars for the month of February and maybe some of march until it runs to 10-11 right before it starts selling the drug here in the US which will probably be early April as the DEA will take as long as they can and upon the good starting sales numbers Arena will get, that's when the stock will blow past its 52 week high straight to 15 in late April/June. As more and more sales numbers come in, it will move higher towards 20 by July/August. Just got to be patient, hold and buy on any dips near 8. 8 is the absolute bottom.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If Arna closes over 8.80 today, Tiger will be on here, after he is off work at 4:30 (remember, he made it perfectly clear that he doesn't take posts between 6:30 and 4:30, as if anyone cares) and he will push the 9 and 10 Feb call options ascertaining that DEA approval will be done before option expiration. Sorta like he did with CHMP last month. After there is no DEA approval and Arna retreats into the low 8's, he will brag about how much he made with his strangle options.
And when someone admonishes him for his option predictions, he will declare that he is selling his position and leaving the board. At that point, his minions will cry like little babies, " w-a-a-a-h, w-a-a-a-a-h, please don't leave tiger, we appreciate the time that you put into your dd."
Does all of this sound familiar?
problem with your theory is the world could end before Launch, the wait is out another six months. Shorts will try every cut throat method to bring the price down in the meantime, so join in, short the dormant period.
Two: Darn you would be right EXCEPT: there is this little market already ready to come in play called the US that isn;t going to be too much longer of a wait--its an additive material news environment---you got to keep looking at your destruction from multiple angles Mr Seller!
And your linking deals to approvals---didn;t happen that way in the US---remember! bad assumption---could be a killer!
Also remember this really good: if you are truly shorting this--you might not see it coming because you are looking over your other shoulder for some other market material news here!
You don;t understand totally how precarious your situation is here---the big boys do, but not you! You might be safe for 2-5 weeks but 6 months---no no no! 2-5 weeks is not even assured!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Way, way, way too optimistic. Why people pluck big numbers from the air because they hope that's where the PPS will go is something I have never understood as it has no rational basis and is a recipe for losing a lot of money if decisions are based around such fuzzy maths. First, the US launch is more likely to be in early March than early April. Second, the early sales figures would have to be vastly beyond the top of the expected range to lead to a doubling of the PPS a month after the launch. In other words, you are fooling yourself. As to the "absolute bottom", you may right about 8 during February, but if sales do disappoint, the bottom will be far below 8, as the entire future of the company and the basis for the PPS is sales. All we ARNA longs hope the sales go well, but if you assume only the rosiest of scenarios and don't consider other possible outcomes, well, good luck, as you will certainly need it.
I would like for you to try a reference book called a Harbrace because your grammatical skills are terrible. Now I would like for you to show the rest of us how you are valuating ARNA, because even with some poor sales figures (aka not meeting some overblown expectation) we will still be ahead of the game, and it will be much higher thatn the script number of VVUS. So please elaborate for the rest of us.
BTW I also have shares in OREX as well because the market is large enough for more than one drug, and competition helps push research results.
Yep ready to short after launch. Hope it gets to 10 then ride it to 4.If B is priced the same as Q and sales are about the same VVUS should trade 2X ARNA as there are 2X as many shares of ARNA fully dieted. This assumes the higher costs short term for VVUS trials is offset by the higher gross profit per sale vs ARNA's 37% take of the gross
It is true we need more objectivity. Yours is as subjective as most of the other projections.
Still you are blest, compared with me!
The present only touches you
But oh! I backward cast my eye
On prospects drear!
And forward, though I cannot see,
I guess and fear
To a Mouse (Robert Burns)
do then iago let's say arna starts off with some rough sales #'s off the bat? I know of some companies with rough initial launches, then down the road success. How long do you think it would take ARNA to recover from 4 to 14 (years)
I don't think final approval will be anything major because it will just be what everyone expects which is a schedule 4. It could move .75 cents on final approval and the crooks could just take it right away. It will make a big move on EU approval but who knows when that will be. Think we will have US launch before EU approval? My predictions were based on EU approval happening after US launch but EU approval will definitely move the stock 3-5 dollars.
Sentiment: Strong Buy