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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • pharmaapproved pharmaapproved Feb 13, 2013 3:04 AM Flag

    Gave my 9yr old daughter a math problem last night, she is smarter then most Analyst

    Worldwide obesity has more than doubled since 1980. In 2008, more than 1.4 billion adults, 20 and older, were overweight. Of these over 200 million men and nearly 300 million women were obese. 65% of the world's population live in countries where overweight and obesity kills more people than underweight. More than 40 million children under the age of five were overweight in 2010. Obesity is preventable.

    Overweight and obesity are the fifth leading risk for global deaths. At least 2.8 million adults die each year as a result of being overweight or obese. In addition, 44% of the diabetes burden, 23% of the ischaemic heart disease burden and between 7% and 41% of certain cancer burdens are attributable to overweight and obesity.

    More than 1.4 billion adults, 20 and older, were overweight.
    Of these overweight adults, over 200 million men and nearly 300 million women were obese.
    Overall, more than one in ten of the world’s adult population was obese.
    In 2010, more than 40 million children under five were overweight. Once considered a high-income country problem, overweight and obesity are now on the rise in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in urban settings. Close to 35 million overweight children are living in developing countries and 8 million in developed countries.

    Overweight and obesity are linked to more deaths worldwide than underweight. For example, 65% of the world's population live in countries where overweight and obesity kill more people than underweight (this includes all high-income and most middle-income countries).
    As stated Arena will enjoy "Patent protection for 97% of the World" with Belviq for years to come!

    Now with all of the above facts, lets look at the financial reward.

    Arena has said that they will have well over $200M at the end of this quarter

    Arena will receive up to 1.2B from Eisia along with 33% to 37% of all scripts sold in the U.S. Canada and South America.

    As we know, Arena is looking for an EU partner. Also, mentioned last week for the first time, Arena is looking for an Asian partner as well. (97% of the world patent protected)

    Jack said last week they were looking for a deal similar to the agreement with Eisia for ROW. So lets break this down.

    This means that Arena is going to sign a deal for an additional 2.4B plus 33% to 37% ROW rights.

    Eisia 1.2B + 33% to 37%

    EU 1.2B + 33% to 37%

    Asia 1.2B + 33% to 37%

    My 9 year old daughter can tell me that ($1.2B X 3 is $3.6B). Yet our market cap is well below this today.
    This figure does not include the sale of one single pill. The last time I checked the stock market was about future earnings.

    How can anyone justify Arena trading at less then $2B market cap with 97% World patent protection, Worlds obese population, ROW partnership deals, cash on hand and Arena's pipeline?

 
ARNA
4.11-0.12(-2.84%)Aug 21 4:00 PMEDT

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