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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • chrisbradenjones chrisbradenjones Feb 14, 2013 11:38 AM Flag

    Here's what the market - based on the trading - has said to retailers since pre-AdCom.

    You've done well.
    If you stick around, you'll do well from here, BUT, here's the caveat.
    Institutions want millions of shares. Many of you will capitulate. Whatever is best for you as retailers DO, but you must endure a range, you must endure 100 share lots on the ASK AD INFINITUM to SLOW THINGS DOWN.
    Yes, 50M shorts are going to cover - in sections with a few hard parabolic moves up, but they continue to put pressure on the stock in low volume windows. They actually help us accumulate shares long. These are the terms. You must endure frustration, what you believe to be opportunity cost on particular days even (in actuality, you won't be experiencing it in the end as ARNA will be on the other side of $13.50 relatively soon). ANYONE IN ARNA WINS, but you have to stay in.
    This company is brilliant in the structure of what they've done with their partner. For 35% of profits, they hand nearly all cost for studies, for marketing, for launch to their partners. They have cash. There will be no reason to raise money. They are LEAN and MEAN. They have transcended the classic model that Wall Street loves to attack (DNDN comes to mind), which is after FDA approval, attack the stock into launch and make them prove their numbers based on where the valuation is. Arena will win, particularly against the back drop of a deteriorating story for VVUS in my view. VVUS has the wrong terms, the wrong model, no partner w a major distribution foot print , extremely limited venue for marketing and sales, and REMS. They have a tough road ahead. Arena is traveling light here with major profit ahead.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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