100,000,000 obese U.S, adults (BMI 30+)
5% are treated with Belviq
30% are responders
$3.00 a day
365 days a year
1/3 goes to ARNA
$542,025,000 Revs from Belviq
Plug in your own numbers
Doesn't include anything BUT U.S. 30+ BMI at a 5% treatment rate (i think thats low, but like i said, i'm being conservative) Does not include BMI 27-29. No off label estimates, No revs from non-responders. and Only USA.
You dont take the drug for a year.
Women who become pregnant dont take the drug
If it is not effective in twelve weeks, you stop taking the drug.
Your revenue assumptions are astronomically high for these reasons.
actually you take the drug permanently. In other words, for as long as you need CHRONIC weight management or unless you develop side effects. And my "assumptions" took in to account non-responders after 12 weeks. Go read the post. And i put the number at 30% which is below clinical trials data. Nice try though. No wonder shorts have been getting creamed. You don't even know what you are shorting.
I think your numerical analysis is about right. Once the sales launch actually starts ARNA share price will start to rise quickly. Right now at under $8.50 is a good entry & accumulation point.
Statistics on T2 diabetes:
A - 25.8 million people in the U.S. have diabetes (8.3%)
B - 2010, 1,9 million new cases were diagnosed in people 20+
C - If current trends prevail - 1 in 3 U.S. adults will have diabetes by 2050
D - Diabetes is the 7th leading cause of death in U.S.
E - Total costs for treating diabetes from 2007 (6 years ago) was $174 billion
F - Direct costs were $116 billion
G - Medical costs for a person with diabetes is 2x of those without.
And these are not the most up-to-date figures - which have to be larger.
So how big is this secondary market for Belviq? Answer . . . HUGE!
A bit about the 5% treatment rate: General Practitioners see 110,000,000 patients each MONTH and a higher percentage of them are overweight/obese according to the Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care. it is safe, I believe, to assume 40 million obese patients each month see their doctors.
Truth is no one actually knows how BIG this market can be with Belviq and its multiple uses for various health issues. U.S. pharma's were caught off guard by Eisai's early move to partner, and ARNA does not need their money now. BP has lost their leverage and can only stand by and watch how big this becomes in their own backyard. This was a brilliant strategic move, in hide sight, by ARNA and Eisai - both won. I think you are conservative, which is good. In my own mind, I think this will 'eventually' be bigger than Lipitor was . . . worldwide revenue of $12B annually. JMO/.02¢