Till we hit the 45 day mark + the DEA will use it all. Still expect them to stick with the 30 which puts us into Apr launch. Don't see much pop on the news, MAYBE to 9 as its already baked in. As I've said, sales will be the real driver. Presuming Eaisi has done their hoemwork, we should see a mild launch, much better than VVUS but not a breakout like many here are hoping for. This stock will ride a steady climb upward once sales begin and other events unfold. Its a 4 bagger but with a 2 year horizon, enough time for sales to build, other approvals, EU, and other indications + pipeline news.
Have to laugh at the thumbs down. I'm not a cheerleader for the stock I'm an investor with a long term horizon. I distain + ignore the pom pom queens on the this board as I do the bashers. Neither serves a purpose. All is speculation now as far as approval + timing. IMO the DEA took the max time to classify + I see no reason why they won't do the same with the final and I see them forcing the 30 day. I could be wrong + hope I am, but I'm looking at the past + what they have done here as the marker for future decisions. I don't think the shorts have a year as sales will slowly move the needle upward on the stock but it won't be a rocket like many believe. In addition tutes are accumulating and the increased % will also drive the stock upward. Once they pass 70% onwership expect upgrades by the larger brokerages but not until then. The combo with the 2 other drugs to substantially increase efficacy and other indicatons will present another leg up. CHMP is still in limbo but the company has said all along mid 2013, not Feb like all the pom pom boys believe. If you're rational you'll see the steady move up but the MM's are still in control and in case the pom pom's haven't noticed the stock has slowly moved down, not up. Its down again today and is down 5/6 days now and the only red on my list with a market making new highs.
By summer we should see stock appreciation but not until we see initial sales. I am long and will stay that way and add as the price drifts down. Still think we may see a price in the upper 7's as they have 13 days to play with it.
Any post that does not predict a PPS in high double figures by tomorrow afternoon gets thumbed down by some folks... Just ignore it, and them. The only thing in your post I would disagree with relates to the Eisai 30-day waiver request, as recent precedent for other drugs of a similar classification implies Eisai's request will be granted. That would allow a launch in early March. Until then, the absence of news will keep the PPS from rising, and there could indeed be a further decline. But I do think news of the launch will attract sufficient attention from the markets to cause a decent pop back into the 9's, maybe a bit higher. Of course these views will also attract thumbs down from the pumpers.
I always like to read an opinion. I think the DEA scheduling will raise the price of our postage stamp by giving us direction and decision. I expect DEA to put us in a new range higher and then upgrades....sales, EUR will only help us further along.