galaxie500xlm • Nov 14, 2012 10:11 PM
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CFO - "it’s a significant market opportunity for us"
So it’s a significant market opportunity for us. We actually are very much ready for the launch. We’ve delivered we announced in our last 10-Q launch supply to Eisai. So we delivered a $11.6 million worth. It’s a portion of the launch supply. So we’ll be ready to launch as soon as we get DEA scheduling.
Eisai has been an excellent marketing partner. They had been able to market successfully two block busters in Aricept as well as Aciphex both of that come in our patent. So they’re really focused on the launch of BELVIQ going forward. The economics are significant to us we get we sell them product and from for the very first dollar we get 31.5% of their net sales not a profit share but net sale, very significant.
So in terms of looking at further down the economics at $250 million in net sale. We’ll get 31.5% of that which is about $80 million plus that threshold we achieved some purchase price adjustments as well as some milestones which another $55 million take on top of that when we get DEA scheduling is another $65 million. So if I do my math right that’s an excess of $200 million on their first $250 million of sale.
So it makes significant opportunity for us. In terms of other opportunities we just announced last week a nice collaboration with the South Korean company Ildong but we received a $5 million upfront payment great economic service as well first dollar on net sales is at 35% and that will ramps up to 45% on net sale. Less
Basher, you are ignored, but before I shut you off completely, 35% US, 35% EU (potential) 35% Asia ---minimal expense = 100%+ revenues, you dig? What patients drop out? ARNA had 8000+ patients for during the trials
I'm not bashing or anything, i've no position right now, i'd like to establish one but not sure which direction yet...that's why i'd like to hear from both longs ans shorts.
I'm just concerned about those things that i mentioned in my previous post.
Belviq is only a bit more effective than placebo and the lesson learn from VVUS is that is very difficult to get people buying your drug even if it's effective...go figure!
The plan is to prescribe for 3 months. Those who do not respond with at least 5% weight loss will be more closely counselled by their physician to determine why. The responders have shown an average of 8.3% weight loss in a year, 30% of them losing more than 15%. The mode of treatment is not the same as conducting blind clinical trials. Each patient will be under the scrutiny of a doctor. This will make a great difference. Many people want to point to Qysmia by Vivus as more efficacious. However, in the clinical trials, the average weight loss over one year expressed over all patients is very close to that of the mid-dose leve of Qysmia, and THAT was the dosage approved by the FDA for Qysmia. The higher dosage of Qysmia requires patents to double up on their pill intake and their doctors to prescribe double doses, a practise that could get them in trouble if a patient were to sue them for some side effect.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Pippo how many VVUS patients dropped out duets poor efficacy. Look at VVUS prescription rates versus their 4Q earnings! What does that tell you! Non responders are fact of life in weight loss drugs, but you must tell and know the whole story!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It will take a year to have a good readout on that. But if marketing is really good and appears on TV and in print, even if that happens their will be a pipeline of patients for some time to come wanting to try it. Potential patients 250 million, needed fro valuation of 2 billion 333k. What do you think the odds are?