The ultimate face-off has occurred - two armies staring each other down.
I am simply amazed that there are still millions of shorts with news just a matter of days away. I don't believe the FDA is going to rescind their approval, or that Eisai is going to dissolve their partnership with ARNA. So what are these critters betting on - a disastrous launch, a rejection by the EU, what? The competition has stumbled out of the gate - no partner, poor acceptance, saddled with expenses and contracts, rejected twice in the EU, REMS labeling. Up until big institutions and funds started buying huge blocks, i.e., Wellington, Blackrock, Fidelity, etc., the shorts had the potential to scare retail out of their shares. Now these shorts are faced off against a very formidable opponent. They cannot manipulate this down nearly as easily to cover, because their foes will quickly step in and buy all the shares available as well. So . . .
They are waiting on any small misstep so they can grab some shares on the cheap, but I don't think they'll get them lower than $6.50 at the most. Everyone knows this stock should be sitting between $15 and $16 right now. IMHO.
Eisai and Arena have had ample time to 'game plan' this launch, as well as prime the pump for the product and its benefits. Time will tell, but I am betting they've done their homework. Don't forget Eisai has done this successfully before with two other products, so this is not going to be a trial run for them - as their learning curve has been shortened considerably.
they are counting on a slow launch. most drugs experience diffiicult during launch. the odds are with them on the short term. so they may get an opportunity to cover if retails panice when prescriptions disappoint. the positive factor here is that Q did so miserably that even though it is common for new drugs to take a while to get traction, B should be able to out perform Q and that may be enought to stop a sell off and propel the stock forward.