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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • sammie.thebull sammie.thebull Mar 2, 2013 9:59 AM Flag

    Eisai sales guy information from launch

    Good morning, my neighbor was over last night after he arrived back from the launch meeting. His daughter is always here with my kids. He says Jack is a "regular guy" seems to be very intelligent. Besides that here is what he knows. No confidential information but some pieces of the puzzle.
    He says the DEA is still not done as we all know. He has not heard anything from management about it but thinks they know something. Here is why. The labels and boxes have been printed and the pills have been shipped to a UPS facility where they can be sent to pharmacies within 24-48 hours. My neighbor is not a sales guy who calls on doctors. He calls on insurance companies and state health plans to try to get the pills on there plans. Here is the intresting part. He was given the GREEN light to begin making sales calls on these companiies starting Monday. He says since his customers are not prescription writers he can call on them. The regular sales force cannot call on "prescription writers" until the product is on the pharmacy shelves.he heard the figure of $150 million in sales the first year is the expectation. They are going to have a program where you get a coupon for $75 bucks after you make your first purchase along with web sites and other stuff.
    I forget all the rest of the stuff.
    Well, take it as you will. that's what he said. Enjoy the weekend.

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    • Thanks

    • he was fooling you ... belviq is already launched and effectively being used by fidiots on mars and moon. They are already shipping it using fedup (fedex and ups combined as single can not reach both places in space fast enough.) Doctors are writiing left and right and also some time they write back and forth or sides too. So many elephants are becoming giraffe by taking belviq in africa. Verify all this too. He will tell you about this as well.

    • you forget all the rest of the stuff???? really. I would have been writing it down and then ask the guy if it was ok to post.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • To sum it up, Ready...Aim....?.....?....(just HOLD your mark, it's coming!)

    • Thank you Sammie for the update. Great news. Thanks also given to Tiger on the update on the projection. It is all good folks and we are just about ready to launch. All longs have a great weekend and next week should be a good one imo.
      GLTAL's

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • $150m should be low expectation already 57000script for VVUS for 5 months, Belviq should be double $300m, i am guessing.

      • 1 Reply to jaguarskyng
      • Jaguar,

        Don't forget that the sales figure is the AREA under the Number of Scripts graph versus Time (aka the Integral) and the Scripts Graph is not a constant for the whole year it starts with zero and reaches a certain number of scripts. Assuming Linear increase in the number of scripts the Sales figure would be ONE HALF of the target Number of Scripts. The actual graph is not linear, it is more like what is known as an S-Curve where the area below the scripts is much less than a Linear increase in scripts.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Sami,

      You stated "$150 million in sales the first year is the expectation"

      Here is my calculations:
      For $150,000,000 in Sales for the First Year meaning by end of Q1 2014
      Eisai's First Year Sales = $150,000,000
      Eisai Annual Sales per Patient = $2,400 ($200 per month for 60 pill bottle)
      Average number of Patients for the First Year = 62,500

      Here is my current Revenue Projections that justifies a current share price of $25.71 a share
      ==================
      Projected Number of Patients at the End of each Quarter in the US that would justify a $25.71 a share
      Q2 Y2013 | 13,278
      Q3 Y2013 | 24,288
      Q4 Y2013 | 44,449
      Q1 Y2014 | 79,585 | Four Q's Ave. = 40,400
      Q2 Y2014 | 141,472 | Four Q's Ave. = 72,448
      Q3 Y2014 | 251,752 | Four Q's Ave. = 129,314
      Q4 Y2014 | 439,416 | Four Q's Ave. = 228,056
      Q1 Y2015 | 727,848 | Four Q's Ave. = 390,122
      Q2 Y2015 | 1,143,656 | Four Q's Ave. = 640,668
      Q3 Y2015 | 1,684,757 | Four Q's Ave. = 998,919
      Q4 Y2015 | 2,286,019 | Four Q's Ave. = 1,460,570
      Q1 Y2016 | 2,819,418 | Four Q's Ave. = 1,983,463
      Q2 Y2016 | 3,238,967 | Four Q's Ave. = 2,507,290
      Q3 Y2016 | 3,545,371 | Four Q's Ave. = 2,972,444
      Q4 Y2016 | 3,726,918 | Four Q's Ave. = 3,332,669
      Q1 Y2017 | 3,835,827 | Four Q's Ave. = 3,586,771
      Q2 Y2017 | 3,888,089 | Four Q's Ave. = 3,749,051
      Q3 Y2017 | 3,936,264 | Four Q's Ave. = 3,846,774
      Q4 Y2017 | 3,955,761 | Four Q's Ave. = 3,903,985
      ==================
      Conclusion: In the Revenue Model, the projected average number of patients for four quarters by June 2014 is 72,448 patients which is not too far off from the 62,500 patients average for the first year.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Thanks for sharing...

    • Samm, Where would 150 million in sales the first year put the stock price?

      • 2 Replies to steeldoom1970
      • If the $150M in sales does happen (and it is very reasonable for it to happen); Arena would see $47.25M as their percentage of that sales as revenues. Now, it gets a bit tricky, because Arena is about to receive $65M as a milestone payment and according to their annual report that would be treated as revenue. Thus for 2013, that is $112.5M+I believe there is some other milestone payments that could occur in 2013. For now, I will leave other ROW and EU partnerships out of the equation. Arena also has various tax writeoff's so they could wind up paying zero U.S. taxes.

        Their burn rate is about $18M per quarter. Assume projected revenue (incl. MP) of $120M.
        Subtract out costs of about $22M per quarter or $88M which would leave $32M EBITDA earnings but for this quick analysis, I will leave taxes at zero and not project depreciation/amortization allowances.
        Thus 32M divided by ~ 220M shares would be $0.146 earnings per share. Trying to guess at PE ration at this stage of the game is difficult. Suffice it to say the PE ratio would be very high. My guess is 90 to 120 (it is not going to stay that high going into future years). Thus price by the end of the year could be $13.50 to $17.50.

        The key is that if $47.5M is the revenue number for Arena for just the Belviq part of the revenue, that would be considered very good by most of the analysts. In addition, if the sales trendline is upwards to the right meaning that sales could probably double in 2014 (if EU happened); sales could more than double in 2014 for Arena. It is that projected revenue and growth that would allow the very high PE ratio above.

        Again, this is a "back of the napkin" analysis, but provides some idea of where the stock price could go to by the end of this year. Caveat is that EU approval would add some percentage bump to these projected prices.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Dont know, I think there are a few guys on the board who are numbers guys. hopefully they will see the post and make some calculations. Remember that number was just floating around the meeting.

    • All Good! Thank you for the update. Monday could well be lift-off!

 
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