lets say 10,000 scripts a month average written to start for the quarter. 30% will be thrown in the trash when customer discovers the sales price. That equates to 7,000 filled at $200 wholesale price. For 3 months that is 4.2M gross revenue to the partner. 31% to ARNA of the take is 1.25M gross revenue. Looks real good.
The market does not care much about the one time payment as it could well be the last one. They care about reoccurring sales revenue and gross margins and a little about pipeline close to delivery. The ARNA pipeline is about 5 years off and thus is of no value today
You are assuming a lot. You assume that Q was thrown in the trash because of price, and not because the patient asked the doctor "so, how come I can't just go down to the local pharmacy and buy this?" and the Doc said "because its such a craptastic drug that there are severe limitations and restrictions on the sale of it" And then the patient walked out and threw in the trash and said "No thanks!" seems just as plausible of an explanation. Or do you really think each of those patients called up VVUS and let them know it was too much to have it filled. You don't know the reason.
I have no idea what the rate of scripts will be. but with 30,000 docs being targeted my gut says your estimate is wrong. Unless you really think Eisai is only going to be able to get 1 in 3 of their docs to write 1 script. seems low to me. Especially since these are docs that Eisai has already fostered a relationship with. And these are docs that all deal with obesity.
And 200 bucks just really isn't all that much. (will be less with coupons etc) You act like this is the most expensive drug ever. I complain about the 120 bucks I pay each month for my daughter's singulair but guess what? I pay it.
We know this -as the insurance coverage kicked in the abandonment rate went from 30% to 22%. No Dr.tells someone a product is #$%$ and THEN writes an RX for it. That is stupid talk.
Double the sales numbers and ARNA ends up with 2.5M gross revenue. Triple that- is 1.2M gross revenue per month
Kinda like your cellular bill....LOL But that phone doesn't make you feel better, doesn't improve your overall health. People looking to improve their quality of life will have no issue paying for B. The benefits outweigh the costs.
You only have 180 reps not much more than VVUSs 150, so it will be slow going at first. Also you need time for patients to see the doctor to make sure they qualify to get Belviq. You have to be fat to get it just like with QSYMIA. Anybody who says other wise is misleading you and is full of it.
Van is wrong---dead wrong. Take VVUS and AMRN. two go it alone small bios. Both over 60 percent off their PPS highs. It's going to take both multiple quarters for either to get to the revenue ARNA will get when the DEA croaks Class 4! If VVUS and AMRN continue as they are they will be buried for years under a mountain of costs and their shareholders will bear the brunt of it. ARNA business model is the sensible route to profitability and the less risky route for its investors leading to a multi drug setup!
Sentiment: Strong Buy