To start with, with the stupid conference call this morning we could have really taken it on the chin by the close today, but we didn't. We all expected something major to be announced and it wasn't. Was this all bad? I don't think so. Why you say. Think about it. The earnings report was mildly disappointing. So what did this accomplish. Answer it got all the so called negatives out of the way with very little downward movement. Now we have the investment conference on Wednesday. There is a possibility that the DEA will release tomorrow but we do not know if they will waive the 30 day situation. Should this happen tomorrow we investors will know the same time that Arena does which means there should be a pps bounce before the word officially gets circulated around. Wednesday would be great because Arena could publicly talk about the launch but not give away info to VVUS that they should not have. I am just speculating here but I do truly believe we dodged a bullet today with the non productive conference call. It also tells me that we have a strong price base at $8.00/share. I believe the $7.00 days are behind us for good. Look at VVUS with all their problems and yet they to this point are still above $10/share. Am I letting Jack off the hook for this morning, no I am not. This company has to start thinking along the lines of a professional PR group to get thinks out to we the investors and to those who trade our investment tools for us. We also need to convince management that Jack needs to stop with the scripted readouts on these calls. He sounds like a bafoon which I realize he is not. He needs to talk from the heart. As a long --long I sit and wait each day for our investment to finally start to pay off big time for those of us who have the faith and compassion to witness this company go through its growing pains one day at a time.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The truth is the report at CC was not bad. Everyone knew we did not start selling so the report was not bad or good. The fact people don't want to here is our ceo once again screwed us. He knew if he waited until normal date march 11th or 12th chances are DEA would be a go. If CC reported same numbers but also had DEA go, the price would have taken off up instead of crashed like today. Either our ceo is not smart enough to know this fact or he did try to bring pps. down. Fact is he has done this to our price before. This is a great product but he has done nothing to promote the price and many times been the cause to drop the price. He hurt our stock price more than Cramer and shorts ever could. That is a fact
Its hard to imagine that on top of the launch, EU potential and the always looming buyout talk -- this is whats up in 90 days AT THE WORST
2013 Financial Guidance
In addition to revenue from BELVIQ sales, Arena expects revenues of $65 million in milestone payments from Eisai following the DEA's final scheduling of BELVIQ, approximately $6 million from amortization of upfront payments from existing collaborations, approximately $3 million from manufacturing services from Siegfried, and $1.5 million from additional regulatory milestone payments from Eisai. Arena expects full year 2013 research and development expenses of approximately $70 million to $78 million, including non-cash expenses of approximately $7 million, and general and administrative expenses of approximately $28 million to $34 million, including non-cash expenses of approximately $6 million.
Thats a $40 ER people .. wake up
Thanks for your thoughts. Keep in mind the PPS comparison is apples to oranges withoput the OS count added. MCAP is a better gauge to actual value. Look at ARNA as a 1.6 Billion MCAP on just a pipeline of driugs waiting to be approved or marketed.. If you think about it the value is quite substantial for a company with little earnings. Of course the future is baked in a little but even at 500 Million from Belv... this is a 5 Billion Dollar Pharma immediately and a PPS that triples from these levels from potential growing market share that could easily become world-wide with exponential growth because its simply so far been proven safe and could also as the first mover become the standard for prescription as Doctor's feel more comfortable with the heard prescription mentality. We are headed higher in the days weeks and months ahead.This one that you can sleep well at night and not have to worry about.
I look at it this way... the earnings report and conference call had quite a few positive nuggets of info for longs and would have been viewed as very positive IF WE WEREN'T EXPECTING MORE. We jerked each other off jacking up expectations sky high because they move up the CC almost 2 weeks and scheduled it pre-market.
Arena/Eisai/Belviq really is firing on all cylinders except for DEA delay! If it were not for this schedule change, date just happening to be 45 days after DEA comment period closure, and our excitement it would have been very positive and ARNA pps would have increase 10-20¢ today.
Now, that being said, I feel Jack/Craig/Hoffman must have had a very good reason for this! I do not know exactly why but it must have to do with the DEA schedule finalization and Belviq launch timing and perhaps even more.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It is the exception that Jack and crew speak publicly without cratering the share price. Hopefully we reboud enough tomorrow to keep the share price from cratering to the sevens on Wednesday. It was none other than Einstein that defined insanity as repeting the same act and expecting a different outcome each time.
Jack's speaking in investment conclaves have sunk ARNA share price so often and so many times that it is incomprehensible for him not to have gotten the message to stay home and not shoot his mouth off.
If I were a Cynic i'd say that he does it to sink the strike price of the new stock option that he and the crew reward themselves with gingerly and often.
At opening bell prop desks at Schwab , Fideilty, merrill plunged the price to take shares from retail and give to some institutionla clients. JIMHO. If you watch the tapeit seems tomorrow will be good, while strong close. Retail brokers see the client book and the margin book, easy for them to get shares inside