Belviq will go to market between now and the next 4 weeks. EU approval most likely will not occur given the strict regulatory environment. No buyout from any big pharma will occur without seeing at least 2 quarters of stellar sales and positive sales outlook beyond that. I see the only way of this happening is huge advertising expense i.e. tv & radio commericals, etc. to promote the product to the public. Access to doctors and pharma is not enough alone to achieve huge wall street expectations. The only real bullish case for Arena at this point is the possibility of combining lorcaserin which is years down the pipeline and more regulatory hurdles. All said, this is still a $15 stock with a $3 bil market cap.
Nothing wrong with toning down expectations as hype and cheerleading can be more dangerous than bashing as most people want to belive in that pot of Gold but close their mind to losing it all. One of the best barometers to value is what are the Directors of the company doing with their investments. Are they purchasing, are they paid by shares, are they dumping on news? Here there are a few key peeps with in the company structure that are very light on ownership? That can be nothing or something to at least think about.