While reviewing the analysts concensus price targets for Vivus and Arena, and converting them to market caps, I was pleased to see that analysts agree that Arena will be bigger, better than Vivus next year.
A few months back, analysts expected Vivus would be a $2.5B company, now that has been reduced to $2.0B.
Arena has remained unchanged at $2.4B
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Q... is it the amazing and wondrous mixed cocktail of an amphetamine and an anti-seizure drug? ......there seems to be 2 contradictory stories here...... Which one is it?
a) Q is a brand new wonder drug.... er, a mixture of drugs..... er, a brand new way of mixing drugs that is so innovative and never before seen in this world or the next (wow, tell me how does it work?).
b) Q is just two old drugs that have both been around for years and therefore they are completely safe (even when mixed) and they are both available in generic forms or even timed release forms, so there are no risks about safety.
It looks a lot more like it's just a fixed dose re-formulation and the weight loss relies mostly on phen..... yep, good old generic phen (now available in low dose and timed release forms) that has fewer adverse effects, no REMS, and is easier to stop and start..... AND works almost as well as mixed Q (especially low dose).
Confused? How can a totally safe drug have a REMS and birth defect warnings? Why does such a mild low dose drug mixture require slowly titrated start up and warning about stopping too fast to avoid seizure? Is a REMS just an obnoxious inconvenience that should be overlooked?
Sauve and Dio, what do you think is taking DEA so long??? This is starting to smell like Hedge Fund/Govt corruption. On a 1-10, what is your level of concern over the amount of time they are taking and the possibility of some unexpected negative outcome?
Bio, since we are still within range of the normal review cycle for new drugs, I'm not ready to jump to that blame, although having said that, I have no doubt that certain slimy short crooks would try to intervene and exploit the process using any mean possible (regardless of how it might impact the development of important new disease treatments for them and their families).
In any case, I don't follow the government conspiracy path.... they do not have that power and are just forced to follow up and review each and every comment, and also try to ensure it's not over or under-regulated.... the technical details are complicated and the process takes time.... sure, hire an bunch more case workers and it might speed things up a bit, but this is the way it is right now.
I'll wait for a couple weeks to see where we are at and also see what EMA-CHMP is saying by then.
Not all-in and not all-out for now.....
Yeah S9, and I always come back to the science.... the basis of the enterprise value.
V says: let's go buy out the rights to a Formulation mixture of old drugs.... it's a fixed dose ratio so it can't be adjusted (except direct up or down at same ratio) and the IP value is ONLY based on the mixture of those drugs IN THAT formulated ratio.... they do not own either of the basic drug chemical compounds. This is a joke among biotechnology industry, it is why they are not respected at scientific meetings and it is likely why some shareholders are now seeking changes in the corporate direction.
Arena develops an innovative drug discovery platform.... then says which of the BRAND NEW compounds that we have discovered should we develop first through our established scientific testing and clinical trials and how should drugs be best marketed via partnerships to retain IP value and maximize enterprise value while allowing continued growth into the development of each successive compound? Each drug candidate in our IP portfolio was discovered internally and Arena OWNS these NEW chemical compounds.... in other words they own a suite of chemical molecular structures and ANY use, development, derivatives, or other re-formulations would be subject to the wholly owned IP value. Arena has top scientists in various areas of expertise and they have published fully documented and supported peer reviewed research findings. They are not only respected in professional scientific societies, they often partner and work directly with other scientists.
It certainly appears from the outside, that JNJ screwed up...... they had some access to GPR119 intellectual property via collaborative agreement, but didn't want to pay more to continue forward with Phase II testing or pay up to get access to the second generation of compounds..... they poured more funding into DPP-IV and may even be banking on getting increased sales of topo.... did they underestimate Arena and Eisai???
Can't compare drugs.... the're different in every way.
Can't testing.... protocols and analysis are different.
Can't compare business plan.... different approach.
Bring on the sales.... bring on benefits for T2DM....
Let's stop this needless arguing and get down to it.
They seam to be down grading, as Belviq is a novel not 2 generics remade. To big pharma this drug alone without the company most likely would fetch 5 B so the company is selling at a 1.7 market cap at the moment and they say 2.4 can you say undervalued. The big money is not smart money as they are on the WRONG side on this one, they need to stop the shenanigans and cover. And IMO it looks as if someone is influencing the DEA as it was rec at 4 and they stated 4 and they are still hashing it over and taking more time then most drugs.
Sentiment: Strong Buy