Why do the default assumptions on this board always involve manipulation and corruption? What's wrong with the idea that someone simply decided to sell a reasonably large position (0.5-1 million shares), perhaps ones that were bough last week at a much lower price, thereby reaping a decent profit? Just because some retail longs who post on this board seem unwilling to ever sell a share doesn't mean that nobody in the wider market ever sells... This stock cycles around, and some traders choose to buy low and sell high. The past week's PPS movements must be very tempting to agile in-out traders. Anyone care to prove that what I suggest could not be what happened?
I don't think that a profit-maximizing trader would have dumped a large position all at once. They would have chosen to sell in lots that would not affect the share price so severely. Yesterday's severe drop has all the earmarks of manipulation, tomorrow is opex, which probably accounts for it.
Unless, we get some news this week, my guess is that this hovers around $8.00 (+/-$.015) until Monday morning when a rebound will probably happen.
BTW, the word "corruption" is inapplicable here, and I get tired of seeing posts accusing all and sundry of corruption when there is not one shred of evidence to back it up (with the exception of some folks at the FDA and on the adcom, where there was at least some evidence to suggest - at the very least - a conflict of interest; but that is now water well under the bridge).
Iago, I have followed your posts the past couple of months. You are spot on in my opinion. Is there corruption and manipulation? sorry we might disagree a bit here, but people all to often blame every drop on these types of actions. I know you let it go and you are a better person for doing so, but you are spot on about this whole DEA delay. I dont know who started the belviq vvus war, but this has hurt arna investors the most and is beyond stupid. More than enough room for both drugs to succeed in the long run. I held this stock from April until July last year and am looking for a good re-entry point. I know longs dont want to hear this but I think 7s will be here by the end of trade day on thursday minus a dea launch. Either way, I am planning on going long once again at some point tomorrow or thursday. See you around and great post.
Sure, I can agree there are traders, but I also have seen how folks can manipulate various financial instruments for their gain. Libor rate anyone? Banks giving out loans to anyone that almost destroyed our financial system and derivatives tied to this? MF Global accounts wiped out and that #$%$ Corzine is still walking the streets? Sorry, you're talking to an old X-Files fan. There is something up that we are not privy to it.
I tend to agree; ardent longs (and I've been long the stock since February of last year, but I've traded around my core a LOT) here seem to think that every sale is part of a grand conspiracy to hold down the PPS. I'm of the opinion that the DEA is doing their Due Diligence, that it will take as long as it takes and that until they are done and we launch, the best action is to trade in the range and book some profits. We are all traders after all, just some of us have a shorter horizon than others....
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Iaago, I cannot prove you wrong. In fact, I agree 100%. For two months this stock has traded precisely as it has this past two weeks. It runs down and then runs back up, only to go down once more. This cycle, in my opinion, will continue until we have a launch. We consistently trade between the high 7s and mid 8s. On extreme occasions it goes as low as 7.39 and as high as 8.73, if memory serves correctly. This is why I have been trading around a core. I bought a ton more around 7.50 and slowly unloaded these holding up to 8.50s. I am kicking myself in the #$%$ for not unloading this morning when I stared at the ticker for about a half hour while it hovered in the 8.60s. I added some at 8.22 and at 8.14 this afternoon. Where does it go from here? Not the slightest clue. Anyone who simply sits with all their shares and never trades is either foolish or out of dry powder. I would be shocked if we see anything over 9 without the DEA
Since someone maybe you CTM, had my post removed or deleted - hopefully that was not the case.
Anyway, short and sweet this time. Calling people foolish for not trading is stupid, very stupid!
I would not criticize your stock strategies and if you like trading on a frequent basis, then fine. But don't ever call people stupid because they prefer not be a day trader. My strategies have worked very well for me over the years. I have done very well!! So the only fool is you for making a very stupid judgmental comment. Sorry but that is direct Philly talk.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
C_T_M: In past cycles (since Aug 2012), I have profitably traded in and out just as you say. But since late-Jan I have been long (at an average of 8.50) and have failed to take advantage of the cycles that have happened since then. Like your ####'s, mine have received a self-inflicted booting, since I too contemplated taking a modest profit this morning in the 8.60s. The problem, of course, is that we simply don't know know when the DEA sign-off will come... And when it does, I still believe there will be at least some boost to the PPS (the amount of which depends on where the PPS actually is at the time). Timing is everything, and I have no way to tell the time... Very annoying.
Iago - YMB posters do not know what shorts / HFT are up to... for sure. Unless you are paid by them, LOL, like some seem to be.
We don't know their plans, signals, methods. Hey, we should put in a call to Cramer... he knows.
I'd like to think that today was the day short-interest came out, and they were putting the pedal down. Also, some shares became available to short. I believe margin buyers came in, and that gave them a green light. I suspect there are a lot of over-extended longs - the shorts will push this out and on (kicking the can) as long as possible.
I truly believe that the DEA will (with waiver) change that. Sure, they might have time to re-group, but they should be very worried of buyout at 14.25 like HGSI. If they put up walls when the 40M shares trade, I think they will really, really be in trouble.
April *should be* the EMA date, and if they hold sub-10 into that, again, they might be asking for it.
When you do the math, EU buyout makes more sense. Why buy the milk when you can buy the cow.
ARNA will want $200M from EU + 1/3rd of revenue. US 'diviidend' should be $50M year one, and if you believe Eisai, $350M in 2020 (could be sooner). That's a lot to pass up for a price tag of $3.5 to $4B ($15 to $18 per share).
chrisanja $8.15 AH
i think it was just other traders following the leader. either through stop losses being triggered or simply cashing in at the end of the first drop to bank profits after buying in last week. I think its very reasonable. Especially since tomorrow is wednesday of a holiday week and i doubt many think the DEA is motivated by our despair. 130k shares triggered the sell off. what buyers were left ready to pick up the fall just weren't there. And why should they be? I bought 500 at 8.31 but when the second selling spree started I wasn't going to jump in to it knowing the history of this stock. We could easily be at 7.75 tomorrow. I'll be happy to have a flat day but my hunch is new buyers are not interested right now with how much short interest there is and uncertainty with DEA. Especially since 8.70 has been a killer wall since January.
Whoever started it made their profits and others made less (or lost).
Well, for all we know, they might be doing it "slowly", in relative terms, and will be selling more tomorrow. Look, the likes of you and I don't trade in the million share range, so who is to say what's an acceptable hit on potential profits - sometimes a speedy sale is needed. Anyway, I think all the stuff on the board about deviousness being beyond everything is silly and paranoid.
its a grand conspiracy dating back to JFK. its the whole reason he was killed by the way. look it up. JFK slept with the mother of Jack Lief and he was born out of wedlock but with super human knowledge of agonists and developed a wonder drug. However, RFK left instructions with the DEA to delay the future drug we all know as Belviq so that Jack Lief would die before ever seeing profits. You see, RFK was secretly in love with Ms. Lief. and his catholic upbringing made him resent his brother's infidelity. To further complicate things, RFK put standing sells on the stock market (posthumously... allegedly) for a future symbol (ARNA) to pound the stock in to submission so that he could buy calls at lower PPS (posthumously... allegedly). its all in the anals of Free Masons if you don't believe me.
what else can you do but laugh it off? sucks. I wish we were selling this drug. but we aren't. till that happens we are going to be in the hands of traders. And I include myself among them. I quit trading ARNA back in October (yes, I've been expecting DEA action since then) but have recent started moving some here and there. Honestly, ARNA is a traders wet-dream. 50 cent daily ranges are not uncommon. So I figure i'm going to make a little money while I wait for my INVESTMENT to blossom. It was painful watching all this money tied up in ARNA since OCT with no gains while the broader market has been a bull on steroids. While my core holdings are not as much as they had been, if anything it helps me cope with this range we are trapped in. I wish everyone would have sold some today in the 8.60-8.70 and bought back in before close or waited till tomorrow to see what comes. But I can also understand people holding tight. To each their own... but...
The sooner folks get these conspiracies and market maker manipulation dreams out of their head, the more money they will make.
DDIN: Your arguments seem highly credible compared to some on here, so consider me a believer. Honestly, we are all p###ed off, so anything that tempers frustration is a good thing - we could use a smile, so good for you.