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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • j_butler1959 j_butler1959 Mar 27, 2013 11:08 AM Flag

    Theory on DEA delay I have been pondering for quite some time.

    There is no doubt in my mind that corruption exists within our government bodies. Just look at the Monsanto Protection Act that was snuck it at the last minute by whom? A democrat who was supposed to be for the people and not big corporations? Signed into law by a Democrat president. Ridiculous!

    Soon people will realize that Democrats vs. Republicans are one of the same and just a facade to keep the common people distracted and bickering while they loot the common wealth from our hands. It is truly politician vs. nonpolitician people and nothing else. One day the citizens will realize that.

    Anyhow, DEA delay could be the purposeful postponement of milestone payments, previously anticipated for Q1 2013. For the quarter, now ARNA will once again show a loss, thereby dropping the price about $1, allowing shorts to cover some yet again. Thoughts?

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    • The White House has sent the DEA a priority message to crack down on prescription abuse, pill mills, and the corrupt system of a few doctors, et all that are involved that allow prescription drugs to make it on the street as illegal activity. If you recall, this has been a big deal touted on major networks, local news, in congress, etc. This has taken the DEA's human resources to a priority directed by the Justice Department via the White House. In other words, they can't focus, or do their job in all areas under their tent. New drug approval applications have taken a lessor priority position in their agenda. The bosses at the DEA are kissing #$%$, and doing what their leader's have directed them to do, and to hell with timely drug approvals. That's my story and I am sticking to it!

    • Well that would certainly explain the ninja turtles in my closet.

    • From a non US citizen looking into at the politics and economics of your system, I tend to agree with jb...there really is no left or right...those ideologies are simply vehicles for those individuals searching for power in various forms. eg. Reagan was once a Democrat. I am not familiar with the organizational structure of the DEA...but I can imagine a lowly govt. worker at $ 45,000 a year could easily be tempted with a bonus to put a file at the bottom of a pile of files. Eventually most systems of government become corrupt...and though your checks and balances are quite and power have always been hand in hand, and will continue to do so.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • The milestone payment will be received within days of the final scheduling rule. That event will be 8-K'd and PR'd. It will also show up in the 10-Q for the first quarter (10-q's always include a write-up on significant events occurring after the close of the quarter. So I don't think anyone with a brain will say "I'm going to ignore that $60 million payment because it happened a week after the close of the quarter". Everyone will be looking at sales and they will certainly take into account the $60 million payment even if the financials for Q1 show a loss.

      Thoughts? Not a big deal. And I certainly don't think the DEA (which is not Congress) deliberately dragged its feet so that the $60 million would not be booked until Q2.

    • I think you have a very valid point JB. The shorts will be all over this earnings target miss next week unless we hear from the DEA by tomorrow after that its to late as the markets are closed Friday.

    • I completely disagree with theories like this one, j_butler. I would be amazed if anyone in the DEA knew anything, or cared at all, about the financial aspects of the company whose drug they are reviewing. They are blind to things like that, as it's irrelevant information. It's all too easy to suggest that corruption explains everything, when in reality, most people are honest most of the time. Yes, there are crooks around, but it's too cynical, and I think inaccurate, to blame crime for events that are more likely to be rooted in inefficiency or under staffing.

      I also question the assumption about the lack of the milestone payment tanking the PPS. First, the payment is "assured" whether it takes place on March 31 or April 1, and the investors know that. Second, the ARNA PPS doesn't really move much on financials (at least not until sales figures can be factored in). Third, the major investors move in advance of events, not reactive to them - so if the PPS was going to tank it would have done so by now, given there is now only one more trading day left in the quarter. Indeed, one could argue that the large sale yesterday afternoon might have been caused by this kind of anticipation - and it had only a limited effect.

      • 2 Replies to iago4466
      • iago,
        you could be correct that economic impact of the drug under review is irrelevant to dea's decision deliberation but i doubt your statement that they are completely oblivious on the financial
        aspects of their decision. they (dea staff) could be even as dedicated web surfers as most of us so i'm sure they read mb postings.

        i do not ascribe approval delay to any corruption.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Agree, and further to Iago's point, let me remind JB that ARNA does not publish quarterly results until 5-6 weeks after the quarter is done. By then, (early to mid-may) I'd assume the DEA will be done.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • likely... but how can use this to profit?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Just follow the money.....if you can track it.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Our Constitution was designed by the Founding Fathers to address just this situation. They knew this was coming. What a coincidence that Barack Hussein Obama, an admitted Socialist and most likely outright Communist was a Constitutional Law Student here in the USA. No President has put as much time and effort into undermining our Constitution than Obama. He is without a doubt the Enemy within and should be treated as such.

    • MON we would not want people to know what type of modified foods we eat they do it for our own good to save us from ourselves god bless them.

      But more than 16oz of soda is a no no and so much more, like pizza is good for school kids its a vegi. not bad like juice, which has fructose “(does fructose not come from fruit?)
      God bless these fools in office for saving me from myself and fudging the #s so I feel good about inflation
      Can’t imagine why everyone thinks there is a conspiracy in the states

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