Arena message board posts @ 67 per hour.
Needs to get down below 20, then things start happening.
Vivus message board is 4 per hour.
3 of those are from Arena longs[!]
Orexigen message board is 1 per day.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Huge block crossed at 3:50pm..... over 2 million shares..... that's large, even for consolidated block clearing and it was before the bell..... the weirdness never ends...... maybe Wellington wanted 2 million more, lol!
That short position worries me most. Plenty of people believing that arna will go the way of vvus in which case we'll see a market capitalization of less than 1 billion. If sales are slow, and they are most certainly going to be slow the first year, the shorts will reap the rewards of their positions. And when I say sales will be slow, that's based on what we've been told by arna - they plan a paced roll-out to specialists. Nothing put out there suggests they will be hitting the street with a massive sales push to anyone and everyone willing to listen and buy.
The old MB indicator- sell is posts are many and positive, buy if posts are few and, or negative.
What concerns me is 60MM shares short. Who would risk their career, financial future, etc. unless they felt confident they had an edge, or some solid information.
I was encouraged by the pipeline advance. An effective oral med for arthri, inflamatory, or autoimmune disorders would be very large, HUGE, $100 pps stuff.
I am not as concerned about the shorts and do not think they have anymore solid information than we do. The average price at which the shares were shorted is ~ $4.75. That means that 30M of these shares are way underwater. The shorts have been working to unwind those positions but again with the average shorted price at $4.75ish; a good portion of the shares shorted above that average price are underwater as well.
Now a certain percentage of the shorts are doing hedging against long positions. Other's as we have witnessed have let the price go up and then short it back down, allowing what I believe are the shorts that have the underwater positions to balance those paper losses with actual profits. But to believe they have some edge or solid information imo is not the case. Again, imo they are looking at the Q launch and expecting the same with the B launch. But there are many differences that I believe are going to make the B launch more successful and sustained versus the Q launch.
As a percentage of outstanding shares, the SI is about the same as it was going back a few years.
I don't want to steal anyone thunder, but another solid Arena long is going to put out what I believe is a solid thesis for the short's position and why they are wrong. Stay tuned for that in a few weeks on SA.
Their pipeline had been advancing in advance of APD334. APD811 is advancing towards phase II; and Temanogrel as we know will be advanced into phase II by Ildong. In addition, you cannot discount the combo studies that will be done. In fact, before the end of this quarter, the FDA probably would have approved the study and protocol designs for those studies to move forward.
Sentiment: Strong Buy