its a good read. but i'm not sure I agree on the short thesis. The article is sound and does a great job of ripping apart the shorts and how they have failed to see the big picture. But, I'm not sure they are in the dark as much as might be portrayed by that article. I think they do know they missed the trade. They picked the loser in VVUS, and shorted the wrong stock. I think they are betting on a slow start to Belviq sales. I think if sales come out slow or even PERCEIVED as slow they shorts will be out in full force with The Street and everyone else saying "See, told ya." and then they will cover on any downturn. In fact, I'll wager even a strong start to Belviq sales will be met with FUD.
They are just looking for any glimmer of hope to cover at a better price. which they should. 8 dollars is like titanium support. But if the first week of scrips looks weak, then the FUD is going to be unlike anything we've seen. Personally, I have my plan in place. I have numbers I'm looking for. I'd suggest every long do the same so that any FUD thrown out on a potentially "slow" ramp up can be seen for what it is.
No one cares about weak or strong sales the first week or month. At 6 months we will have a good idea of the future.ARNA's partner says 1 billion in sales a year in 2020, along way off. I assume that is wholesale. If so in 7 years ARNA will be grossing 300 million a year before expenses from B. Lets say net profit of 200 million after taxes is achieved you have earnings of about 90 cents per share. assuming a PE of15 (generous ) you have a fair value for the product at $13.50 IN SEVEN YEARS. I also assume the product life wont be long as new products will erode all current products and the IP value depreciates
As a member of IVB, I don't agree that it has better information. It has many faults. I am working on Mo_Money to start posting back here, not asking him to quit IVB. A little history, back in the day around 2006/7 is when I starting to read and then post on Arena YMB; the numbers grew as we approached the first AdCom. But back then, we were a much smaller group of long posters with a few bashers sprinkled in the mix.
Sentiment: Strong Buy