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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • fedupwithwallstreet1110 fedupwithwallstreet1110 Apr 18, 2013 4:49 AM Flag

    One of Germany's 5 top rich men killed himself when his short sale failed. ARNA investor speculates on the similarities

    I take every prediction I read with a grain of salt. This person I know has good credentials and is a sane thoughtful person. He's a long term investor in ARNA. He thinks there will be a short squeeze and if institutional ownership goes up higher it could be a grand one -- in the case of VW / Porsche short squeeze a hedge fund manager committed suicide.

    "Merckle made a speculative investment based on his belief that Volkswagen shares would fall; however, in October 2008, Porsche SE's support of Volkswagen sent shares on the Xetra dax from €210.85 to over €1000 in less than two days (a short squeeze), resulting in losses estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars for Merckle... Adolf Merckle committed suicide on 5 January 2009 by throwing himself in front of a train... More than any other single investment, Merckle’s poorly timed short-selling of Volkswagen shares caused the financial distress that led to his death. Believing that Porsche could not complete its takeover of Volkswagen and would have to sell its shares, Merckle and others bet against Volkswagen stock. But Porsche had quietly and effectively cornered Volkswagen stock..."

    What rings in my ears is the several hundred million dollars in loss. That's what I estimate ARNA shorts are looking at.
    Anyway, friend wrote:

    "Increased institutional ownership and a decent launch will make it inevitable. Porsche increased their holdings in vw to 74% and there weren't enough shares in the float to cover. If we can get to 75% institutional ownership add an eu approval and decent launch its game over."

    "FYI 2 days before the squeeze vw short interest was only 12.9%. Even a poor launch will be moderated by the institutions. They won't sell at the outstanding they will be patient. In the end shorts will cover at much higher price."

    Do your own research.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • The delay will serve to hurt the shorts. This drug has been widely known in the appropriate circles (endocrinologists, gastroenterologists, weight loss clinicians etc. since the New England Journal of Medicine in 2010. This drug will be used as a co-therapy with metformin in the prevention of diabetes. I have heard of waiting lists...No matter what you do to Q of Cntrv (sic) they are both available now to anyone with a pen and a DEA license in generic forms. The reason they don't sell is due to their side effect profile. Belviq was created to replace fenflrmine (sic) all you need to do is read the history of its development. You will realize that it was created and tested and studied this way (single molecule) at the request of the FDA.

      I think wall street will be surprised at the uptake of this drug it will be immediately be combined with phentemne (sic) and if it even approaches the use of the phn fen combo (also a generic combo). The market cap will grow exponetially. Belviq's efficacy is actually better than fen's stand alone efficacy.

      Of course all of this is my opinion but I have done alot of work on this company. I am convinced that most people want their DD given to them which is their own oxymoron. This includes the so called analysts...and AF. The fact is most people are lazy and worst yet lazy thinkers.

      The A1c numbers of this drug are good enough to be a stand alone diabetes drug! This is shown very clearly in the Bloom DM study

      So say what you will AF's of the world we welcome your opinion ... we all know how that turned out previously. You can't argue with sales and sales will be good...because doctors want this not wall street. Some day soon we will point to the scoreboard. The people with real skin in the game are gobbling up shares like mash potatoes on thanksgiving, the institutions. I'll take some gravy with my belviq.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I dont think Arna will get to 75% institutional holding. Retail is just not selling their shares regardless of what lies wall street tells. There could be a massive squeeze for sure. if sales take off and retail continue to hold. If sales are so good that its clear revenue is going to be in the billions. No retail holder who has been holding this stock for a year is going to sell with a little pop. with 50% of the stock not trading the squeeze would be massive.

      • 2 Replies to bamastudent86
      • I believe tute % will go to 95% at some point but at much higher price. Retail will sell but at higher price.

      • I believe the only thing trading on the open exchanges right now is small retail and HFT's which hides the true scarcity of this stock. With weekly options, hft's and growing dark pools the demand is hidden. The HFT's are taking shares from retail. The institutions don't place buy orders. This is a newer paradigm that people don't understand, it could be incredibly painful for shorts. If you rode this pony through two adcoms your not selling now. It may be difficult to get there but your not considering the fact that the shorts are selling fake shares. That's the tell. The recent increase in short interest went up from 45 million to 65 million, what if institutions bought those share? We know wellington bought 10 million more!

        When I say people don't understand what's important is that some do...and the shorts are in the battle of their lives. Institutions like Wellington are feeding the rope.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I honestly really do believe a short squeeze is feasible if all the stars align. I didn't expect to be holding this stock this long, but there is no way I'm selling. I've put almost my entire non retirement account in this stock and won't settle for pennies. The time will come when it comes...I don't see a better place to put my money, besides having cash on this sideline for stocks that go on sale. We have CHMP within reach, DEA launch we are next inline (Forgot the conspiracy BS), Switz, Mexico, and the ROW...The more I think is this stock worth $8.....The more confidence I gain. I'm sure Arena and the executives are waiting for press releases, dying at the chance to promote their drug. We just need to wait for 1) Launch 2) CHMP which ever comes first. Everybody is waiting...management, Esai, shareholders, and shorts...I for one would not feel comfortable with a short position on this stock, it is a ticking time bomb.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • It will certainly be a news story over the coming months worthy of financial coverage, yet maybe a book down the road from some investment guru...."The Short Story on Arena Pharmaceutical's". This Msg. board deserves a chapter in my viewpoint. GLTA.....If short don't commit suicide, it's just money and you can downsize your car, your home, your retirement, and your kids college plans.

      Sentiment: Buy

 
ARNA
4.09-0.10(-2.39%)Oct 1 4:00 PMEDT

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