Buddy, I will take it! I used to want to see this company excel in drug discovery and marketing of those entities, but this has all the smell of DNDN manipulation. You can't beat the big guys. They have more money.
There are certainly "players" lurking. Need for these things to happen first:
1) DEA - next week, tomorrow, who knows
2) EU - approval (next Friday, by looks of it)
3) Shorts to attempt to hold the price down, in the aftermath
BO price premium - not too high, but at a discount to what it should be
Anyone with their "buy orders ready" should take this Opex Gift and buy shares. Shares - I did in IRAs and Roth. They can't touch them.
No partner in Japan or EU. Maybe they have one lined up?
As for no product on the shelves, there are plenty of companies bought in P1, P2, and P3 - no products or approvals. Not a valid counter.
Most of the companies are purchased in earlier stages so the buyer can control the sales, marketing and distribution. This company is too far along in the process and has an agreement in place that would complicate things for a buyer.
At this point it will be more logical for a buyer to wait to see how the drug is selling under this agreement. If it works, then you will pay for it, not a big deal because it will be easy to calculate a return on invested capital. If it doesnt work, then you can buy it for very cheap or not at all.
The issue here for the investor and the pharma is the obesity drug space. Many major pharmas have been burned by the drugs, their memories are long and their pockets are deep. You dont create billions of shareholder value by taking risks that you cannot calculate.
My conclusion is that if anyone is in this stock for buyout potential, they are in the wrong stock. This can have plenty of upside for other reasons - but a buyout is not in the cards in the near to intermediate term.
IF the CHMP gives us a recommendation for approval it will still have to go to the EC and they can take 2-3 months to make their final decision. IF we get CHMP approval we could be looking at July before we get final approval.