Just got a call from the DEA regarding the redacted document. They explained what it is and it's very interesting!
FACT1: DEA asked the FDA to review the document which was reposted this week.
FACT2: FDA reviewed it - the only change they made was to delete one word on Page 10.
OPINION1: I believe DEA asked FDA, the medical authority, to review Sched. 4 proposal, probably in light of the 20+ negative comments some of which may have concerned the DEA about abuse. FDA came back reconfirming Schedule 4 in light of those comments, and my guess is, DEA is now going to reconfirm its decision to Sched. Belviq as Sched.4.
OPINION2: This is a positive development because
a) it explains that DEA was in a wait period itself as FDA revisited the designation.
The lady left a message. I may call her back to thank her -- if you have any followup question let me know soon -- not sure if she'll answer but I can try.
Unless stated as facts, the contents of this message are just my opinions.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It is quite mind blowing how personal some of the people in these threads get. Just try and remember we are all investors with something to lose, whether long or short. The point should be the CONSTRUCTIVE sharing of ideas from both camps. Everyone has already picked a side and non constructive personal attacks are a waste of time.
I am curious why so many people are susceptible to speculation when facts are the only thing that matter. EVIDENCE should always be the first and foremost ingredient to any investment. So, I will post "evidence" of why I am an Arena long and would love comments from both camps.
1) The delay in DEA scheduling in my opinion is simply a smoke screen to prevent another Phen Phen incident by the FDA. People have to remember this is the first weight loss drug approved in so many years and the last one hurt people. Whether you believe the delay is because of the comments, a conspiracy, or HF manipulation, try and remember the facts. The FDA and DEA together must protect the people but importantly themselves so they are taking their time to this right.
2) If you go back and listen to the last conference call, Arena had already said that they expected to launch Q1 (I think I even remember Jack saying May but not real sure). I mean guys we are in April for God sakes. With everything that has transpired, what's the hurry? The stock has consolidated heavily in the past months. Institutional ownership has risen tremendously. All the weak longs shaken out (have u guys checked out the volume lately?). Short interest is very high. This are all good "facts" to base your investment on. If the people with the REAL money (no offense guys) have not sold a single share, don't you think you should be sleeping very well at night?
3) Contrary to general sentiment, I actually am rooting for Vivus although I own no shares. You guys have to understand, the two stocks no matter what you say, will always be associated with each other. Although the obesity market may be huge, try to remember these two drugs are the first approved for obesity in over 10 years. The market may be huge but it has not been penetrated in a long time so speculation is high. So...if Vivus fails so can Arena. However, if Vivus survives long enough for Arena to gain traction it will protect the stock. I'd rather have that and compete than to not get there at all. The "fact" of the matter is (why I added more shares this week) Vivus is actually treading water at the moment with the announcement of wider availability and a rise in prescription sales. This proves that the market for obesity drugs is growing. As an Arena investor this makes me very excited.
4) Last but not least are the actions of Arena themselves which gives me the utmost confidence in the eventual (I am a long for a reason) success of the company as a whole, not just with Belviq. I mean, how does a company sell a drug to big pharma to distribute and retains royalties as well as subsidies for future trials? Genius! Left open a huge market in Europe up for grabs as leverage for future partnerships or who knows, maybe a sale of the company outright. They did what Vivus couldn't; maintain rights to a potentially successful drug and in turn continuous revenue, BUT in addition they were able to create a partnership which continues to fuel the other pipelines which protects the bottom line (with Esai). Even now, Arena isn't worried about money and won't be for quite some time.
Please add to my reasons or kindly reply counter arguments to any.
Age is all relative but that film had a point. The brain of men does shrink with age but I think it also depends on how one lives. I believe yoga can help by reversing gravity.
Opinions are just worthless dribble. We don't invest on opinions we just get hurt by them. People like you fill the heads of people with a unfound hope that they will make money soon. These message boards are meant to confuse investors not help them! They are filled with people with alterior motives to make money for their companies or themselves, not you and I. We will all wait patiently for the DEA annoncement. It has not happened yet and we know it will come sometime in the future. What that time frame is, NO ONE knows!
You are right about opinions and they can be worthless. That is, until YOU take the time to research them for substantive value- or not. It's apparent you haven't taken a few minutes to check out his web site and the FDA video whereby he rebuts the ARNA shorts and their lies during a very short allocation of time at the FDA hearing. BTW, it's "ulterior", not "alterior"...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Keep up the posting Reza. You have backed up Arena a lot and I enjoy reading your post's, everybody has their own opinion on where they stand with you, but I do stand behind you. You do a lot of the leg work and at times maybe excessive, but you are an investor and protecting/fighting for your investment isn't wrong. Nobody knows wth is going on with the DEA...At this point who cares, move forward.