If one is playing the weight loss game it makes sense to own the co that is the most undervalued based on current consensus rev estimates and not wishful thinking. For ex., SVNT.....currently sells for.....LESS than 1x 2014 rev estimates vs a whopping 15.5x for ARNA, and a more reasonable 5.5x for VVUS. VVUS-by far- is the cheaper of the weight loss players, if you desire to invest in this extremely competitive market place. On the other hand.......if you want to invest in a co with zero competition, has patent protection till 2026, pricing power, label expansion opportunities, *multiple nearterm catalysts(*EU NICE guidance this month, partnership deals pending, another major price raise, EU launch 2H13 and dialysis study results 3Q13 ), AND...... an extremely low valuation.........****less than 1x 2014 rev estimates vs the current industry P/S aver of 9......then you want to own......S V N T. In summary, as long as VVUS' valuation remains extremely undervalued relative to ARNA, you will have continued selling in ARNA and buying of VVUS. Good luck to all.
EU NICE guidance this month for SVNT's Krystexxa will lead to an overseas partnership deal(s), triggering a nice rally in the shares. Again, ARNA sells at a lofty 15x 2014 rev estimates on Yahoo vs.....LESS than 1x for SVNT and SVNT has multiple nearterm catalysts............Good luck
Pricing will likely be a major problem for ARNA, along with weaker study data vs VVUS. .......SVNT has neither of these two major problems. For ex., as an orphan therapy for a rare disease, SVNT and Dr Meeker will be able to raise the price of Krystexxa 3-5 fold over the next 12-18 months and have zero pushback. Second, there are currently no drugs approved or in development that equal SVNT's Krystexxa in terms of efficacy in regard to curing severe tophi....................none.
You have GOT to be kidding me??? Comparing a company (SVNT) with one failed product launch (2 years ago and STILL no profit), another completely subsumed by generics, no development pipeline, no sales force and no market to Arena??? What ARE you smoking?
JUST IN CASE ANYONE MISSED IT: Savient is the poster-child for failed drug product launches (Krystexxa, an infusion treatment for Chronic Refractory Gout), they just received their second de-listing notice from NASDAQ in nine months, they received EMA Marketing Authorization in January with no means of selling the product there and no partner in sight, they fired nearly all of their sales force last year to cut costs, and short of a miracle they'll be bankrupt within a year. They're trading at about $0.75 or so and any sharp push is going to take that down to half a buck.
This schmuck has been pumping that Circus Train on multiple message boards, mostly because nobody's left on the Savient Board that'll buy his snake-oil. Ignore him now; the only reason I haven't is to refute his idiocy wherever I find it
Sure, that's easy. It is because the street fully expects them to far exceed those estimates. Conversely, the street expects VVUS to miss those estimates. So far, the street has been right.
Oh I don;t know, here choose your poison---it makes total sense:
(1) VVUS still has a REMS (loosened) and ARNA does not---that stains Qysmia.
(2) Any insurance entity that will cover Qysmia, will cover ARNA drug too.
(3) ARNA drug is simply safer than Qysmia---read the totality of their labels.
(4) ARNA has an experienced supporting larger pharma for a major market---VVUS does not to date.
(5) ARNA does not have to market or sell their drug in the US---VVUS does--that costs big bucks.
(6) ARNA doesn;t have to do regulatory in the US--VVUS does..
(7) ARNA doesn;t have to have but a virtual commerialization staff--VVUS either has it or has to contract it.
(8) ARNA manufacturers themselves and get tax benefits off it--VVUS contracts it and has no cutody over potential issues that could result.
(9) ARNA gets milestone and royal;ty payments for doing nothing other than providing the drug---Qysmia pays for it all!
(10) ARNA efficacy actually stacks up pretty well versus VVUS except at Qysmia high dose, They both have non-responders and VVUS will have more withdrawals over adverse events than ARNA likely will.
(11) ARNA drug is easier for patients and doctors to use than Qysmia---read the labels!
(12) ARNA drug does not have the PHEN stigma attached to it. VVUS does---especially with generalists!
I can go on and on---its you who are not making sense. The only thing I dislike about Belviq is I am leery of their cost per dose via Easai--it may be too high, but I give Easai the benfit of the doubt as I am surte they researched the market before choosing the price. if VVUS can give freebies and lower prices, ARNA can adjust some as well!
Bring on the sales war and you will see over time exactly how wrong you are!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The reason is because vvus sale numbers suck ! Way below estimates , the company is in real financial trouble , especially with their new acquired loan they just got themselves into .. It's pretty easy as far as most can see , SAFER.. GREATER ..
No---becaue ARNA will capture 75% of the available market that would ever buy a weight loss drug and VVUS may never reach 25% of the same pool of patients that are willing to do weight loss drugs at all! Whether that is 10% of the fatties market or not! ARNA belviq will outsell VVUSat least 3-1! The reason is safety!
Plus the business model of VVUS is totally flawed and they are in much worse financial shape than ARNA---the reason is Easai!
I hate to tell ya this but " consensus revenue estimates" you mention are WISHFUL THINKING! Analysts are terrible at guestimating market penetration of drugs and earnings off them---absolutely peutrid!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Kutz, it's putrid.
This drug will need to outsell its competition 3-1 to stay even due to the deal with Eisai.
I expect it sell a lot more and quickly. The cost of the drug is a concern for me. I think patients are balking at q's 150 price tag per month. Eisai is not Pfizer and has a questionable pipeline. Belviq has best work well FOR THEM, they have very little behind it.