Think the delay is good for shorts? Think Again. The cost of margin to borrow stocks in large blocks is a lot of dough. The cost for longs who own stocks outright is ZERO. Because a shorts owns nothing (they sold what they owned) its impossible for them to OWN. Therefore, they have a real and constant borrowing costs.
Some short shares were borrowed going on a year ago.
Many long-shorts sold too low and this stock taint never going to fall far enough for old shorts to make anything but a fat loss.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Why worry about shorts? The things we need to be concerned about (looking forward to) are:
- DEA scheduling
- US launch
- Sales ramp-up in the US
- Positive CHMP recommendation
- US Sales growth, post-launch
- EMA approval
- A good European partnership deal
- European launch
- Approval and launch in other regions
- Expansion of indications for Belvique
- APD 811, APD 334, APD 371, temanogril, and Belviq development and commercialization,
The probability of many of these being successful appears reasonable to good. If so, then the shorts will readjust their trades to take advantage as well. IMO, much of the short position is part of a hedged bet by some pretty sophisticated investors, who will make money whether the stock goes up or down, so why worry?
Belviq as weight loss drug has a sizable market opportunity and coupled with the whole health effect of weight loss and A1c & BP improvement and a good safety profile, that seems to provide a positive future for the initial launch.
The shorts will adjust accordingly, and when a more mature (less speculative) trading environment develops, they will basically fade away IMO. GLTA.
PS, also not worried about helicopters, high fives, limos, etc.
Institutional shorts may pay little for the shares they short.They borrow money for almost nothing and may be investing clients money. Little retail folk are more likely to be on margin IMO. The longer this drags on the more likely Belceobo has a harder launch as Q gets marketed with no competition. Shorts seem to have all the time in the world and are happy to short more.
Did you guys see Q now has 35 million more people covered with insurance to use the drug at a low cost this week? I don't think ARNA has any coverage at this time. The way ARNA is kicked around like an ugly stepchild the insurance co's my take until 2015 to give a coverage decision , once the DEA gives a decision
2015 for insurance? What a bath of BS. Qsymia's getting insurance coverage has just set a very significant PRECEDENT, not just for Belviq, but for all future drugs in the obesity arena (no pun intended). Belviq will get coverage approval as soon as it is launched. if not even in advance of a launch.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You dont have a clue. High stakes short positions involve borrowing by a contraxct thats written in blood. If the borrower does not repay,, hes out of the business for good and they pay the current nterst rates for margin.
She'll drop to 6 and change, then run back up because someone will point out that people living in the EU can get the drug anyway, if its going to be in US stores. "Hi aunt mildred, buy me 4 cases of depends and that fancy new obesity drug and ship it to me...hehehe". See?