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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • sp500chartdotcom sp500chartdotcom May 3, 2013 7:56 PM Flag

    The true nature of ARNA longs versus shorts

    Most ARNA longs have been around this stock for a while. Their nerves are steel by this point. They hold the stock with strong hands as each dip weeds out the weak holders and quickens the resolve to see this through to launch and successful sales. Longs have educated themselves with multiple sources of solid information. They have examined the data, the process and the very likely outcome. They have exercised patience and shown a strong will to trust in the science and in the marketplace's need for a safe and effective weight loss compound. They have followed the additional BLOOM and BLOSSOM trials. They have made an informed decision based upon all available information.

    Shorts, on the other hand, have chosen the path of distortion, obfuscation and outright lying to try to muddy the waters of understanding. To them, the truth is a threat so they have to do whatever they can to hammer away with countless repetitive lies. Their assertions are for the most part almost humorously false.

    The good news is, the longs here aren't stupid. The shorts make for good entertainment and, in a few weeks, the show is likely to go into overdrive when the DEA does what the FDA has asked of it and schedules Belviq as a Schedule IV drug.

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    • Here is how I equate the long and short situation
      Two hikers are approaching a very large meadow within a Forrest . Way in the distance they see a gigantic bear. The bear notices them and starts running towards then. One hiker yells, "come on hurry lets start running"' to which the other runner says, "wait a minute". He then takes off his back pack, takes out a pair
      Of tennis shoes, and starts putting them on. The first hiker says, " what are you putting tennis shoes on for, you can't out run that bear. To which the first hiker replies, " I don't have to out run the bear, I only have to out
      Run You."

      This isn't a marathon, we only need to hold out until shorts capitulate. They are the ones spending money holding on to their positions. Not costing us anything. They are the ones having difficulty finding shares to short. The only way they can maintain is to cheat, the longer they do, the more obvious it will become, the more likely they will draw attention to their illegal activities. They are the ones with the problems. All we need to do is hold out till the next catalyst when the bear bites them in the ASSets.

    • SP500 I have the greatest respect for your analytical analysis and I thank you for sharing. My experience tells me the market is due for a correction also, my experience also tells me when the tide goes out all boats sink accordingly. Maybe a nod stock that is very thinly traded will escape. Jack landed a scud missile and very few were able to run for cover many were caught with margin calls and many were stopped out. Unless the DEA can finish their work quickly this stock will inevitable be caught in any market correction simply because a lot of the built up expectations on European approval has been removed.

    • Wow! Now 28 thumbs up for someone so deep in denial that even the past two day's trading has not shown him how completely the MM's control this stock. "Nerves of steel" indeed. A lot of longs stampeded for the exits after hours Thursday, panicked as the MM's pushed it down by showing large sell orders. And I would say that 20 million shares of programmed churning yesterday was not enticing them back. Look around you. The ranks of True Believers are thinning.

    • Bump to the top

    • Yeah, 15 thumbs up for pure fantasy. Unless you exited around the time of the January options flim-flam, as I advised, no one has made money holding this stock long since last July. In fact, the stock is down over 20% since then, a period during which the S&P has advanced over 250 points. Great investment.

      • 3 Replies to bearofbleecker
      • I will actually give you a reasonable response because I try to be reasonable from time to time.

        First, I have been buying the dips SINCE approval. With today's close I am down about 7%. I have nothing to hide there. There is a bottom to ARNA at these levels and it is but a fraction of the potential top. I can live with that risk/reward. I see 18 as a very attainable first level target (ten points higher) and 4 as bottom (3.5 points lower). I also see fundamentals coming into place that should move it out of this range and into the teens. EU was one of them. That was iffy all the while. DEA is just a matter of time - a mere formality that is on a tardy schedule likely due to intentional 'sequestration flu'.

        I am also a 'chartist' if you will. The S&P is overextended and could come tumbling down any day. The action today does seem to add to the idea that there is still room to run in the indexes but for every stock that looks like it may be making bottom (X comes to mind) there is one that looks like it is getting ready to roll over.

        I mention this because ARNA moves without much regard to the indexes. It has a negative beta so it is as likely to be up on a down day as it is to be down on an up day. So, I don't give a rat's nether region if there is or is not any correlation to the indexes.

      • You've proven yourself a fool Bear. Very entertaining but ignorant obviously looking at history.

    • Very well stated -- im long and have been with a core position for many months -- also have had a ball buying the dips and selling at close to the highs several times before the dips , but im holding my core position until we see the sales figues off this new drug which i think is gonna really surprise alot of folks to the upside !!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • two thumbs up !!

    • Excellent !

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Very well stated!!!!!

    • One of the better assessments on the status quo I have seen in awhile.
      Thanks
      Daniel
      UCLA MD

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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