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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • long1star long1star May 4, 2013 2:36 AM Flag

    Strategic Play with a hot hand

    I seldom post, but often read the MB. My perspective on ARNA's withdrawal out of the EU was simply strategy. My belief is they felt they had momentum on their side with the FDA approval, and VVUS's EU rejection. They thought it would be worth the time/expense to submit for approval, even though they didn't have an EU partner like in the US, or near the structure (sales force) that is in place in the U.S. When the EU came back with anything other than immediate approval, ARNA felt it would be wiser to pull back and focus on their sure bet and play out their hand in the U.S. They'll obtain the $65 million once the DEA decides, focus on a successful US launch, gather satisfied client/patient testimony, sign a partner for the EU, prepare the EU sales force, then go back to the EU and secure that market.

    It didn't take a lot out of them to attempt. If it would have sailed through they would have proceeded accordingly. Since it didn't, no big deal. Play the hand your dealt and play it well.

    Full disclosure, I have owned ARNA for several years, approx. 200,000 shares, most acquired around $1.75 PS. Sure it would have been great if they would have gained EU acceptance, but I truly believe this is a blessing in disguise. Instead of being distracted in two mammoth markets, they can stay focused in the US market where they have the partner, the sales force and most importantly the greatest need for their product.

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    • LONG, good post, ive been in arna before adcom and have not sold but added along the way, Im thinking of doubling down with this sell off because of the pull..This pull and the secrecy of management on the details has spooked shareholders to their core..We should see good sales in the first q or two after scheduling, thats the tell on the future of Belviq and im willing to wait to see the progress just like in business...I owned two franchises and when opened sales were very good with a good upside trajectory and after a while sales leveled off to a more reasonable trajectory, This is the way I see Belviq selling, no pie in the sky but strong steady growth going forward

    • My experience reading boards for years is these "I seldom post" "my first post" is just to get people to pay attention and is usually involved in some pump & dump or other similar schemes. I've also learned there are a lot of liars on these boards. As for your post you're full of it because Arena would never line up a EU sales force and no partner will touch it until they have confidence they'll get approval. Also, "instead of being distracted in two mammoth markets, they can stay focused" is just an excuse and an attempt to rationalize something that basically sucks. The EU "rejection" may not bode well on other approvals and even on DEA. I say "rejection" because that's exactly what it is -- DEA told them we can not approve you with what you've given so far. So your post sounds like someone who's helping someone want to get out on Monday to meet a margin call or has some info we don't. I am VERY skeptical at all "pumping" at this stage because I don't think the bottom is in.

      • 3 Replies to fedupwithwallstreet1110
      • REZA, what happened with the EU approval, a slam dunk!!! You are right the bottom is not in and im thinking of doubling down when I think its in, maybe the mid to low 6s..No more predictions Reza..OK...This was a big disappointment by management on the pull for sure, but what is a greater disappointment is the slow dea process

      • what the f is wrong with you? You don't even know the DEA's role in this process? the dea told them it's a sched 4. Do you get that? now they just pretend to be doing something so they can convince people they deserve a paycheck. You are nothing but a basher; of course you'd be skeptical of pumping.

      • I was under the impression the FDA declined/approved and the DEA scheduled. If you are correct, then you are smarter than me. Truth is, I don't post on these message boards very often because I don't have the time and it is too exhausting trying to get a positive point across with all the negative minded shorts. I've given this more time than I ever intended with my initial post. I guess I have to just accept the fact that no matter what you state, if it is positive, someone will try to dismiss it. Actually, posting has helped me understand how the shorts attack, and who they are. It has helped add to my ignore list.

    • You "seldom post"? As far as I can see, this is your only post. Yet you own over 200,000 shares of this -- which is, according to you, one of your smaller positions. You make Howard Hughes look like a smalltime blabbermouth.

      • 1 Reply to bearofbleecker
      • You are correct this is my only post on ARNA, but I peruse the MB probably every other day. And you are correct on another point, I have invested too much of my time on this post attempting to answer or reply to everyone's comments. I don't have that kind of time in my day like you guys. Something I have learned from owing my business for 20+ years, and that is that people tend to suspect of others in the same manner they behave themselves. I expect people to be honest and trusting, that's how I have to conduct my daily affairs. When I see someone like yourself immediately jump to suspecting someone's intentions, it tells me that I should be suspect of anything you submit to this board because that's how you roll. I'll just add you to my Ignore list as you should add me to yours since we definitely don't operate in the same manner. Have a nice day.

    • So you are a true investing guru! You could have easily multiplied your investment five fold, but you decided to hold out??? I would find you more believable if you stated that you at least sold enough to get your original
      investment back and are playing with house money. But no-o-o-o, instead you will wait until Arna hits the magical pps as expressed by Lehill, Hrubli, Tiger and others??? I don't think that a person of your presumed weath would be that stupid.

    • that makes sense .. ty

    • Your comment is believable, but I must say....You don't have 200,000 shares dude. Who in their right mind would turn down $1,176,000.00 in profit. Get lost. #$%$ liar.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to ilikewhitewomen111
      • Hey dumb f... I tried not to acknowledge your response by wasting my time, but I guess I can't help myself. ARNA makes up a very small portion of my overall portfolio. Small like in the size of your mind/brain, and probably other body parts. When you get to the point in your career where you are paying 7 figures in taxes each year you will learn that you invest with the intent of holding until your investment hits your mark. Just because I bought most of my under $2.00 doesn't mean I should sell when the price gets to, let's say $4.00, when you know it has more upside. That's not how I roll. I let the #$%$ sucking shorts bring a company with huge upside down to ridiculous levels, then commit to that company until it reaches the value I deem it worth. I can't blame you for your small thinking when you live in such a small world.

    • Everybody owns several hundred thousand shares, and you're the only one who bought as high as $1.75.

      • 1 Reply to bemis14
      • You need to learn how to read. It's losers like you that can only win by making a company lose. You are a TAKER, and I am a MAKER. I enjoy the profits of my proceeds when success is experienced. Unlike you that try to reap pennies from someone's demise, I prefer to reap millions from someone's success. You live in a dark world of pessimism. I live in a bright world of opportunity, achievement and success. Go start your own company and grow it from nothing, making payroll for almost 100 employees, then see how your outlook on life has changed from where it is today being stuck in your parents basement, waiting for you mom to fix dinner for you.

    • I am in your camp as well, although it took a bit of time to absorb the news and the lump in my throat was hard to swallow. I think trading held up well after the news. I think lack of a partnership was a major factor to pull the EU plug at this time. Not certain what interested parties were at their table, or any deal proposals were under consideration if any? Without a LOI (letter of interest) and agreed terms pending the EU approval, it was a non-starter. Strong US launch is a game changer 8 months from now. Lot's of opportunity lay ahead in other world regions. ARNA is overbalanced in my portfolio, and holding since 2008, and don't need to sell. My trust advisor keeps poking me to sell, some to shares, take profits and re-allocate as the trust needs to conform to an investment model by year end.

    • I have another view as well. The short percent is tremendous obviously and with any upward movement we get hammered right back down in most cases. They are in deep water and with this EU fiasco it gave them a chance to close a few short positions. This will allow ARNA pps to hopefully have less strings attached to it in order to move upward; granted we may not get the monster squeeze if great news of sales, but it will allow us to be less speculative (CHMP) and controlled by a huge short position. Of course I will be biased and spin this into a positive, but I will say Arena management could of handled the news a lot better and not pile it on the CC where the estimates for outrageous in the first place. We work on the US sales and before we know it the EU will comeback into play and we may get a better jump with more tutes and less shorts against us.

      Awesome buy, people might say you were dumb to not take profits...You are obviously in the long bracket and with that many shares you obviously don't mind keeping them there. This will be a great ROI in the future and good luck to you!

    • Thanks for your words long1star. You have a boatload of shares. Wow a penny move is a $2000 dollar change in your balance. You have watched this one gyrate along with your account. Good for you and your entry.

 
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