Eisai's New Obesity Drug To Debut In U.S. In June
TOKYO (Nikkei)--Eisai Co. (4523) said Wednesday it is eyeing an early June launch for its new obesity drug, Belviq, in the U.S.
The drugmaker hopes Belviq will become a blockbuster. It plans to eventually release the product in Canada and Central and South America, with an aim to have the drug generate annual revenue of 100 billion yen in 2020.
Belviq prevents overeating by stimulating the brain's satiety center, making the user feel full. Since it also lowers blood-sugar levels, it can be used as a weight-loss drug by diabetics.
Belviq will be prescribed as part of a regimen that includes exercise and dieting. If the patient does not show a 5% loss in weight after three months, the drug treatment will be stopped.
Eisai said that around 2.1 million people in the U.S. are currently being treated for obesity using existing drugs, and that the release of Belviq and other factors could help usher some 600,000 new patients into treatment. The U.S. market for obesity drugs is now worth 180 million dollars, and Eisai expects it to grow to 2 billion dollars by 2021.
The firm's U.S. subsidiary will assign 200 medical representatives to promote Belviq in a bid to capture part of this huge demand.
(The Nikkei, May 9 morning edition)
2 million + another 600,000 and 2billion in sales by 2021??? Wow, what would PPS be with those earnings?
35% of 2 billion is around 700 million.....
Given this is Eisia's projections, this is big and should start to gain more institutional interest.
ARNA pps currently moving lower as this has now become a scripts story. Eisai must first demonstrate successful launch before appreciable upward price movement can occur. Eisai projections are now on record, and will impact analyst Belviq revenue and ARNA price targets.
Question: How many ARNA longs simultaneously are long ESALY?
Doubt very much that they double the sales force in a year just for Belviq. Maybe they add 50, but you're smoking something if you think they will look to double their costs so quickly. Each territory will need to bring in at least 1 million in Belviq sales before expansion.
Sentiment: Strong Buy