The irony of the VVUS failure is that it gives Eisai leverage to negotiate a buyout at a lower price. The corporate officers at Arena are going to be suppliers anyway. It's a win for them. It explains this violent action. Shorts will lose. The retailers who hold get knocked around, but wake up to a major win. It's coming. If not, this is classic marlket maker HFT accumulation through wildly blatant failure of a BID-ASK/ SUPPLY-DEMAND because of the HFT programs and the diluring of the BID-ASK through endless unenforced naked shorting. The market is the WILD WEST. Have horse and saddle and gun. Will travel.
That is true today but ARNA and Eisai can amend their partnership stipulations at any time. It would take the lawyers just a few minutes to change the language. Having said that, I hope ARNA remains independent as I intend to hold ARNA positions for many years.
Indiana with all due respect your speculation is wrong for only one reason. Japanese companies are conservative and want to see the value and do the math. The second reason is you think Jack Leif will take 15.00. Why would he take that number as he wins because Eisai will sell as that is what they need to do.
I respectfully disagree but think a 30.00 bid at min gets a phone call and sale. JMO
IMO--not right now--not after whats occurred in the EU--maybe later after this comany is more mature!
ARNA going to analyst meetings is also a clear hinting that any deal talks are on hold or not on the table. iIs about sales the rest of this year unless a giant surprise occurs.
I actually think you are more likely to see a partnership on belviq in smaller markets or another compound before a major addition of one over Belviq like the EU.
Again we don;t know sussinctly the issues delaying the EU or how long it would take to put it back on track, or how long that regulatory would take and that su#$@! They need to maybe do some P2 work on other candidates first past to get to that term "proof of concept" and thus they maye currently have to get developmental advancement there.
Notice that Eisai has been fairly conservative in their own estimates of sales ($1B by 2020), while others have stated $2B by 2016.
Eisai has always had the inside track, but there are others.
As someone mentioned, we don't need a takeover, we just need a takeover offer.
It won't come as a surprise to me, but I've been in the minority all along.
Desert: Well: On buyouts
If its friendly, I am sure they can both agree and change the current status written into their agreements!
If its hostile, then somebody has to offer first and Easai then gets first rights to match or excceed! Kind of like how some sports contracts are written.
With the latest in the EU---I don;t think either will happen this year. If the EU gets sorted out, then maybe next year now!
Further partnership in ROW is possible, but diminished in the EU for now IMO! I suppose some kind of Roche/DNA type merger is possible at some point, but right now as all this has fallen out since Belviq approval, I expect a launch and sales and following the agreements for a bit. Foccussing on that for a while is not all bad to me, as it needs real attention--its that important to both now!