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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • lukb4ujump lukb4ujump May 23, 2013 11:50 AM Flag

    Eisai's guidance was for 1 million bottles sold by March 31, 2014

    which is the end of their fiscal year. You guys posting old articles of opinions of Broker/Dealers and Analysts need to realize Eisai has been in the trenches for 8 months and they have a real good idea what they are going to be able to do.

    At 250 million in sales, ARNA will receive from Eisai 133,75 million in total compensation plus the 65 million milestone payment. That means ARNA will do 200 million in revenue in the next 12 months. Compared to VVUS's 6 million in revenue for the first 7 months on the market I would say that speaks volumes.

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    • vir249@verizon.net vir249 Jun 3, 2013 3:54 PM Flag

      make that 3 million for an update...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Lets bump this back up to the top to remind people that 250 million in sales is a lot more then 75 million to Arena Pharma.

    • Focus on the real facts not the bashers dreams and hopes.

      The company guidance is all you need to read, not some shyster or shrill on here trying to divert attention away from the big news. Shorts have been asking for guidance and proof from the companies that they were positive on Belviq. Eisai comes out and gives guidance and now they are not to be trusted..... OK ;-)

    • Eisai guidance is absurdly high isn't it!

      • 2 Replies to todzun
      • Tod: Its fairly assertive, but it isn't absurdly high. Your just used to Qysmia sales underacheiving!

        I want Belviq sales to beat Qysmia by 3-4X in a nine month timeline! 200K scripts is therefore on the very very good end of my range. If they do any better its gravy!

        JMO

        Kutz

        Sentiment: Hold

      • Actually, no I don't think so. I think their sales reps have been in contact with doctors and have a sense of what the doctors are going to do. I am sure they have a much better idea then a VVUS pumper and ARNA hater.

        If someone had posted this projection you would have asked for their proof where the company stated that, here we come it with the proof and the facts and you say they are absurdly high on their guidance, because that is what public companies do right? They pump up their guidance so they can miss and disappoint their shareholders.

    • hedge_risk@ymail.com hedge_risk May 23, 2013 2:33 PM Flag

      What do you know about aricept and the forecasts from Eisai relative to actual results?
      Do you think it has relevance?

      Do you think the transiition from Dividend distributor to earnings accelerator says anything about Eisai's model?

      Are you suggesting that other investors ignore Eisai's performance entirely and just "believe" or "hope?"

      I am a little confused to how you have selected to ignore some of the data (how they actually perform) and accept blindly other data points (the sales forecasts for this single product)?

      Are you just another pumper and any information that does not support your investment thesis is either untrue or irrelevant?

      Are you prepared if the forecasts are missed? Or do you just take it and keep holding long?

      You know why retail serially underperforms, right? You sell all your winners and hold all your losers and over time you end up with a portfolio full of dog ####. You have nothing good left.

      • 3 Replies to hedge_risk
      • Hedge: I'll take a stab at your first question! You can't compare sales results by Easai for Aricept vs Belviq. They are in totally different spaces, different pricing, different therapeutic placesdifferent , pricing, different safety, and about 20 other metrics.
        Belviq is a metabolic drug with very large markets. Aricept is much smaller. Very likely totally different sales peolpe.

        Just stating what you state succinctly reveals that you are a market guy pretending to be a pharma guy! Go back to the markets where ya know something and belong! Don;t give up your day job!

        JMO

        Kutz

        Sentiment: Hold

      • Eisai is going what Big Pharma is going to do. Their patents are expiring and they need now novel drugs to keep their organization growing. Can't blame them for picking a winner, I actually applaud them for getting this one right and protecting their interest in it.

      • Hedge,
        First the world must look nice from that little pedestal you have put yourself on. You are not the only one that makes money in the market.

        First we are not invested in Eisai we are invested in ARNA. Eisai is our partner and to consider if they are go good partner you have to look at their track record. Eisai has a proven track record, they have taken 2 drugs to blockbuster status and have done very well. They backed Belviq and put a lot of money behind it. Because of all the red herrings and delays it has been much longer then they had anticipated to get this thing to the market. All companies miss guidance everyone once in a while, but that does not stop the companies from moving forward and achieving success.

        You can blow smoke all you want about Eisai, they are in the trenches talking with their doctors and they have a sense of what is really going on. Shorts can play games with the media and the message boards but they can't alter the truth. I have ignored nothing, Aricept is down because of alternatives coming on line, like generics from Ranbaxy in late 2010. This has been talked about for a very long time. This intense competition led Eisai to report a 93% slump in US
        Aricept sales to US$119 million in the nine months to December
        2011.

        So you want to say that since Eisai has seen sales of a once protected drug that now has competition in generics drop more then they anticipated they won't do a good job with Belviq. The first safe and effective weight loss drug to be approved in 13 years. I think you are being a little misleading and dramatic don't you?

        Sounds like you are short hoping for slow sales and low refill numbers. What if you don't get that, which is highly probable.

    • And there is my thumbs down stalker, thumbs down the truth and still no written response.

    • Bashers and naysayers are ignoring this truth from a company that is spending millions of dollars to be part of this success story. They would have you believe their baseless rants and factless bashes. Bringing up old articles and projections from the very companies that shorted this stock and are in trouble. Why look at what someone else thinks is going to happen, when they have no inside evidence or proof and their only reasoning is that VVUS sales faltered and they are short and don't want to believe Belviq will be successful.

      I think I will listen to Eisai, they are actually out talking with the doctors and have an established network of doctors scripting their drugs. Also keep in mind that Eisai has already taken 2 drugs and built them in to blockbuster drugs, one from scratch. Remember this when you read their bashes and their attacks.

    • edimartino@verizon.net edimartino May 23, 2013 12:02 PM Flag

      Luk no reason a seasoned conservative sales force would be wrong. Just being sarcastic as these sales folks know how to execute a sales plan. I gotta feel that they are very motivated after being stroked for a year of delays.

      • 3 Replies to edimartino
      • Hedge doesn;t know anything other than what his market buddies tell him. Whose forecast--his buddies!

        Hedge: Are ya prepared to to deal with the ramifications of under predicting the markets here from the wonder analysts who so often get it wrong So often market analysts bump companies from sell to hold or hold to buy and very often they do it because they meesed up their forecasts in the first place! You can listen to them and I will listen to somebody forcast when they actually have sold drug in the world! Cit doesn;t sell drug!

        We are not selling I-pads here!

        Sentiment: Hold

      • Their bonuses depend on it! That's their incentive. I've seen how these guys are thru my pharmacy career. One gal that worked on Celebrex complained that the company she worked for treated these guys like stars and rewarded them much better than the scientists that worked on that blockbuster. I remember a drug rep at the VA when I was a student was pushing an IV antibiotic called Primaxin and made a bundle convincing the Docs to use it for multiple infections when it was more of a last resort drug in more than less circumstances. I believe that was a Merck drug at the time. Long time ago. Gimme my Aricept!

      • I think they are being very conservative in their numbers so they can exceed them when they actually report.

        I came up with a total number of 200,000 scripts could get us to that 1 million bottles in 8 1/2 months. But it all depends on the starting number of scripts and the ramp up per month. I went conservative at 60k scripts which would be 3 patients the first month and then increased it 20k or 1 patient a month for 8 months to get to that million bottle sales number. I did not calculate for drop outs or non responders. But it works out to 200,000 scripts written by their fiscal year end of March 31, 2014

        That is so much better then the B/D's, analysts, and media are projecting, and again the only ones that should be projecting are those in the pits. Everyone else is basing it on Qsymia's lack luster sales.

 
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