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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • hedge_risk@ymail.com hedge_risk May 23, 2013 1:01 PM Flag

    OT: kinda .... EII

    Selling is accelerating, have a gander at that chart.

    Expiring patent of its main drug, unwavering commitment by management to maintain an unusually high dividend with little cash flow coverage, its being maintained through cost cutting in R&D and SG&A, not revenue growth. In fact, their main p[roduct ASricept is forecst to decline by 8% year on year with an estimate of Halaven increasing 50%. Their forecasts have been inaccurrate

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    • So you are dismissing Eisai sales projections? They have a multibillion dollar sales organization that has successfully taken 2 drugs to blockbuster status. Hmmmmm

      I guess you can disagree with those in the know and those that have been in the trenches getting feedback from their network of doctors. I would believe them before I believe a sell side firm or their paid shrills.

      Only time will tell.

    • So Hedge, are you saying that we should take Eisai's sales forecast of Belviq with a grain of salt?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 3 Replies to john_buhrmann
      • hedge_risk@ymail.com hedge_risk May 23, 2013 1:25 PM Flag

        by the way, John ... if you are interested I can send you the spreads on all of their financials and analysts forecasts through FY'18 on Eisai.

      • John...My Dad likes to be Pompous at times. Look at him and what he says like you would look at a blowfish. There isn't much their but air. He walks around this board like he's quite the intellect Market person but at best he and his 3 computers are a mixed up mess of figures and webpages he copy and pastes to look and sound important. Don't get me wrong he has a good side when he gets all liquored up and falls asleep out on the porch like an old dog sprawled out. He's getting old and tired and just doesn't have the ability to peddle snake oil like he use to.

      • hedge_risk@ymail.com hedge_risk May 23, 2013 1:17 PM Flag

        No .. I am saying they have missed their forecast from last two quarters on two of their other drugs.
        It is the best information that is available today (their forecast). I'm saying it has been a great short for me since chrisanja had me thinking about their financial position when someone posted about Eisai buying out ARNA. I discover they didnt have the financial capacity to do it, little access to capital markets and I started to order research about the operations in Japan. Maybe they are good at marketing this drug? They have recently been stubborn and nearly foolish with their cash. Japan is a different culture than here and the investing culture is different too.

        All i know is that the TOPIX is UP 41% YTD including yesterdays 7% decline. The currency is devaluing and this equity should be rising with the tide, it is not.

        I dont care about their prediction, AT ALL, I will be long gone by the time they get around to hitting or missing it. I am interested in the first 45 days and those days only.

 
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