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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • steveh8000 steveh8000 May 30, 2013 8:03 AM Flag

    Belviq Sales....thoughts to consider.

    As a Regional Manager over 32 retail stores in my career, repeat customers from a market base was the holly grail of success. In the case of Belviq, repeat customers are the "RESPONDERS", those that loose weight, and see benefits after a 12 week period. I would suggest that trial study responders were a very valid number, but an overall small population that was subject to study controls, being a more controlled group than the general population will be. A year from now we will have a clear picture of the number of scripts written, and the resulting number of RESPONDERS from a huge population mass. I would suggest this is a very KEY number, and will form a baseline BELL CURVE of what can actually be expected in any population group, in any world population where Belviq goes to market. Hence this "Responder Number" becomes a KEY metric in forward market valuation estimate as Repeat Customers when we enter new population markets globally.

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    • Correct. I would add, people seem to underestimate the enormity of the market. Responders, fall outs, whatever, are pin pricks. Worldwide, next to headaches there is not a larger potential market for a drug! Belviq could hit a fraction of the market and still break records. In the near term insurance coverage if the difference between blockbuster and epic, but eventually epic is doable. My enthusiasm is all based on exhaustive research; "Dude, you can just take a pill and control your weight!" Infingincredible! Take Care!

    • And when considering these things, it is important to continue to periodically expand your chest cavity by the dual action of the expansion of the diaphragm and the action of the muscles that control the rib cage, thus creating negative pressure inside the lungs, allowing room air to enter. A few seconds later the process should be reversed, expelling the 'stale' air after adequate oxygen has been extracted to maintain basic life function. This should be repeated over and over again.

      Now, bear in mind that I am not a regional manager of anything, nor have I ever been, but I still am fully qualified to state the obvious.

      What your post boils down to is 'Sales matter'.

      Mine is 'don't forget to breathe'.

      • 2 Replies to sp500chartdotcom
      • Sales have two metrics for the cost of supply chain and revenue, new customers and repeat customers. Both have a seat at the table for revenue valuation and Wall Street, Eisai, and Arena know the difference. Retail always counts existing store sales year over year, and separately new store sales. It's no different with customers, and existing customers form a sales model that is repeatable in other markets, other countries. Yep, Sales Matter, then how many can you keep, and price is always a determining factor. Establishing a place in the market for a new product is not easy, cheap, or happens quickly, but having a valid sales model per patient population gives you a return on investment against all the efforts and cost put forth to open new markets. A smart choice to have Eisai bear those cost upfront.

      • mine is "water is wet."

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