Excellent Guidance for '13 and Expectations for 2014
Always under-promise and over-deliver. Their reps must have been hitting the pavement really good and have been seeing great responses from Doctors to give that type of guidance. If they say $150mm, I'm thinking $175-$2000mm.
As for 2014, remember that prescriptions are like subscriptions, recurring revenue. $150mm for 6 doesn't mean $300mm for 12, it means more like $500mm to $750mm for 12 months as there will be patients that get prescriptions in Jun-Aug that continue into 2014, as well as many that start in Sept-Dec that take Belviq at a minimum into March and some throughout '14; plus all the NEW prescriptions that are written in '14 from a combination of Eisai's efforts as well as compounding word of mouth from the patients that have taken it in the 1st 6 months.
150, I too agree. 150M is a very modest projection once you read SpencSA 10,000 scripts to start in June and going on from there; that's extremely modest! But why I suggest 0.5B in the first year is because 150M x 2 = 300M, doesn't account for exponential growth over that same period which after 12 months should be closer to $500M full year guidance. Even if we accept a flat line via Eisai, that's 300M/yr and this is news the Street is going to have to consume. I maintain 0.5B is a fair estimate based on Eisai's number calculating in exponential growth.=SV
I have to agree with you. I also believe that base upon ARNA and EISAI's history they are not out to pump a medication or their stock and are being conservative. I really like that. I hate companies that pump and dump without delivering, like DNDN and VVUS.
You make a great point I hadn't thought about - that ARNA has always played everything close to the vest and never hyped potential - so to see them stand together and give #s beyond what many expect says A LOT !!!