9700 to 9800 minus the 1183 puts us at 8517 to 8617 left. So unless we do over 8500 scripts I will have been a little high but again I think this Friday they will report over 5600 scripts so I will still be off by 2900 scripts for the first 2 weeks of sales. Or am I, will the numbers come in even higher?
Luk, should there be that reporting of 5600 scripts as you have guessed, what type of reaction do you honestly think we would have in the pps? We have been so beaten down even with good news it makes one wonder here. I mean, when will we see some significant move and what catalyst in your opinion would move this stock? Just trying to pick your brain. Thanks for all your input on the board. Value your opinion.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
We know Arena received $11.6 mln for intitial shipment. At 31.5% that means estimated net sales by Eisai would be about $38 mln. Estimating a cost to the distributor of $175/bottle ($199.50 is wholesale acquisition cost---no distributor would pay that. Its how business works) then there were 210,000 bottles shipped. Based on that 150,000 in 2 weeks would seem just a bit optimistic.
Of course we don't know at this point if other shipments have been made. Also, samples are reimbursed at COG so really we can't estimate a dahm thing. Have fun.
I think 30,000-30,100 written, but not filled. I predict a shortage backlog. Only 55,000 bottles shipped will cause geographic shortages. Based on approximately $11,000,000 worth of Belviq shipped to Eisai @ $200.00 per 60 pills original rate last October.
but shipments are being still updated and produced, that was just initial stocking which is only 5 bottles per pharmacy and pharmacies are saying they can order more and get shipments in several days. but I like the numbers you are quoting they are helpful to give better ideas, and I also agree that I believe demand will be great enough to cause backlogs on scripts being filled upon presentation. That will be good as it will cause larger stocking orders.