Even at 1500 scripts per week, that means 78,000 in one year.
multiply that times $200 per script or so, that comes to 15.6 million.
35% of that is $5.46 million.
Here come all the soft basher cries and this and that. I'm just running simple numbers and doing basic arithmetic.
To get to $250,000,000 in sales per year, we need to be writing scripts at a rate of roughly 24,000 per week.
So, yes, our initial numbers blow Q out of the water, because well, everything about that product and its company is a joke, they're still a far far cry from projections.
We win the day, no doubt, but looking at the big picture, there's still a long long road ahead.
Please do correct me if my math or basic logic is wrong.....
The reason you're getting bashed is because your numbers have flaws. The $200/script does not include all the first time discounts offered and ARNA doesn't get it all as you have stated. Next, many scripts will stop if the patients don't reach 5% weight loss after 3 months and the numbers will be inflated in the first few months and then drop off after that so you just can't use a weekly average.
You are forgetting that EACH Nrx (new prescription) can turn into 11 more over the course of a year for those who stay on the drug and have an insurance plan that does 30 days at a time. That is the exponential growth factor. Plans that do 90 day scripts would be 3 more in the year but then IMS data will probably be converted to 30 day equivalents for counting purposes. Typically more than half new patient gets a 30 day Nrx with 3 refills for most chronic meds. So Nrx plus refills = Trx (total prescriptions) each Rx gets counted when it is filled and paid for. In this case we know responders are identified in 1 to 3 months, so Doctors could write a couple of refills but some will definitely bring patients back before renewing scripts/adding refills to check progress. Especially since its a new product. There is also the 3 day week which has been covered here. One other thing is I have personally been in 3 Endocrinologist offices this week and although the Eisai rep hasn't been in yet, they have appointments next week and the Doctors I spoke with are eagerly awaiting the visit. I also know 2 high volume primary care physicians who have invested in arna one of those has a lunch with the Eisai rep next week . He cant wait. Just my experiences and opinions here. GL
Each script will need to be sold 81/3 times to generate 1 person stream of income for a year.
Less than 40% will get the first refill due to product failure for them.Approximately 40% will not fill the first script beyond the free sample due to high cost. Finally based upon Q experience unfortunately people get off the drug as soon as they lose the weight they wanted and not continue maintenance . One half year is a good number to use due to cost.Q is only 3.8 months but weight loss is faster for Q multiply 40X40X .5 and you get 12% on the drug end of year for each script written.
Anyone disagree with those numbers let me know why
Your assuming only one months supply from each script. Each script actually is for several months of supply. At the end of the year assuming no one stops, you have 78,000 people on B paying say $ 200.00 per months supply giving you 15.6 million per month in sales or 187.2 per year. 35 % of that is 65.52 million. Fact is, it should grow with advertising and as more people try it and spread the word. With millions overweight this will grow expodentially even with some stopping,,,,the non responders. .
Why would you say "even at 1,500" per week"? Today's script figures are for a 3 day week and they are for the first week. Why not at least start your projections with a 7 day week? Well over 2,000 - and how can a brand new drug with a big sales force NOT grow in recognition and use over the next several months? You're not very good at soft bashing if that's your intent.
I know your not a basher and a long. However, today's numbers were not for one week sales. Weekly sales will be over 3000 on the next report IMO. Also, Eisia has projected $150M by the end of this year. That would be $300M one year projected sales. That also means, Arena collects an additional $134M within one year. Finally, this was the first report and their good anyway you want to look at it. Sales will grow, and longs knew it all along!