Do you think a 100 year old international pharmaceutical company that knows nothing but profits would advance 50% of what their own projections ($120M) Belviq will sell___ IF THEY DID NOT KNOW EVERYTHING?
Eisai paid more last week that Qysmia will gross all year and its only part of an additional $1.2 billion dollar package for the US alone.
All of the pundits look for angles but don't know the whole story. For instance nobody really knows what a tab cost to make or how much Arena gets at the factory. (plus Arena gets 30% of the net profit on the retails side)
. Nobody knows how many shadow trials Eisai was running in unrestricted third world countries with "non-FDA criteria" that probably had had exceptional results. We should expect that they know far more about responders under real world conditions than they disclosed to the FDA. For instance, double-dosing, borderline obesity, ( I see this as the real market) and other morbidity.
They could have backed out of the deal for years if they were not assured Belviq was a winner. To date they have forked over a quarter billion US dollars to prove they forgot more than would-bes like Osborne, AF and Orelli will ever know.
I say Blockbuster-Plus
Wait and pay 3 to 10 times today's close.
Sentiment: Strong Buy