I have a friend in Chicago, he told me that rumors have once again surfaced about a possible buyout of Arena by Eisai. This is not coming from a news source, so I have no links. I will not give up my source, so leave it at that. I do regularly post on this board but changed my name for this one posting, I do not want to get kicked to the curb if this turns out to be false or just another misleading rumor. I do trust my source and he might be someone who would know first hand about such an event. Take it for what it is but thought I would share with the board.
Two major catalysts pending before this, imo.....
1) Market recognition of the T2Diabetes valuation (or better yet plans indicated for label expansion).
2) Resubmittal to EU with the above benefits added to the application.... or as dedicated T2DM med.
No, i have it on good authority that Eisai itself is being acquired by Kamikaze Pharmaceuticals. All ARNA shareholders are invited to the annual Kamikaze meeting, where festive bushido headbands will be distributed.
If the rumor had validity it would show in the share price and volume. This is not happening ARENA does not need a takeover. It will be a blockbuster. Although the nervous skeptics and the shorts are presently in control, that will not last as even in Wall Street logic prevails when the numbers fall into place, and they will !!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
HR, not true..Eisai could make a deal with stock from eisai only, plus eisai would agree to list on the nasdaq, but the divi would have to go and eisai would have to convince current shareholders of the benefits of purchasing arna..The high costs that would be payable to arna if sales are good, also the swiss plant with no taxes for ten years etc...Dilution would occur for eisai shareholders but growth would more than offset this
Reza? Is that you?
We have already established that Eisai dies not have the money to buy arena.
They have little access to funding in the US with a non-traded ADR and a stretched dividend policy. They would have to eliminate the dividend to even consider this purchase. That is in violation of a fairly deep Japaneese culture. Additionally, many investors would sell the shares when the dividend is cut causing their currency to fall further. Simply put ..., Eisai can't afford Arena
Hedge: Everybody is reza---LOL. They could get the money in a heartbeat is they wanted to, by/via several avenues--just because they don;t have cash on hand to cover it outright means nothing! They likely won't yet, but don;t say they can;t!
There is no real business reason to do it at this point with the EU off the table. There is no burning reason to partner the EUeither off regulatory actions there! Easai has already marked their territory here in the US. There is no compelling reason to buy it until this evolves further on multiple fronts!
Easai real problem is they don;t have the kahunis to grab it now instead of higher later. And right now there is nothing pushing them to deals! they are selling drug and trying to uild cash flow off it and they have their bills too.
At some point maybe the financial equation will tip away from writing checks to ARNA and to keeping the money (all of it) for themselves.
Join up with Bear and go read some fib waves! because its clear bio isn;t your gig as smart as you think you are!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
every biotech is a potential target, it's only a matter of when and the price. I don't see this happening anytime soon, but it's highly probably at some point. The point will likely be after they/Eisai have some sales success, move forward with combo studies, move forward with other indications and advance the pipeline. These things need to happen before ARNA's price goes up and then they can get a reasonable price. I think Jack is ready to retire at the right price. All IMO and speculation.
There was a Bloomberg article previously that discussed the possibility of ARNA getting bought out by GSK and Pfizer. ARNA is in an even stronger position now. If a buyout does not occur, it will only be because ARNA shares shot up too high and priced ARNA out of reach.
It just makes a lot of sense for Eisai to buyout ARNA but if the company waits too long, ARNA will be too expensive for them to buyout. Once ARNA obtains EU approval and sets up its partnerships for ROW rights, only a mega pharma like Pfizer will be able to step in and buy ARNA out.