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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • la_lost_boy la_lost_boy Jul 5, 2013 12:23 PM Flag

    Law of 72... Arena scripts keep going up by about 20% per week

    Law of 72 means prescription count DOUBLES every 3.5 weeks. Which means if new scripts average 2k a week for month 1, at 20% continued growth we see
    4k a week in month month two
    8k a week in month month three
    16k a week in month month four
    32k a week in month month five and so on.

    So if u ad in refills, and say only 50% refill in following month.
    You are now talking WELL OVER 50,000 scripts a week by the fifth month
    and 100,000 a month in month 6.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Exponential growth continues.. Look at SA article today..
      Chart shows growth is definitely showing a pattern.
      I expect scripts of 3000-3500 reported tomorrow by symphony
      And 4000-4500 next Friday.
      We should pass VVUS in weekly script some time in August, hopefully before quarterly CC.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • mass multimedia outlet advertising for belviq did not even start yet. that is gonna generate script demand from consumer end of the equation. shortie hopefully takes a massive financial hit. would luv for sec/finra or some publish the big time players that overshorted arna stock. of course in this corrupt casino,,, that is not likely to occur.

    • Exponential growth continues...
      In a shortened week we averaged over 550 scripts a day, and even higher if you use common sense and figure most doctors had a 4 day weekend last week for the fourth.
      That being that, I will not be surprised in the least if we see 3,000-3,500 scripts when they report this weeks numbers next week.
      Then the real fun begins when refills start to stack up next week.
      My best guess is we will pass VVUS weekly script numbers some time in August and become a market leader.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Also, unless patients are dropping off in the middle of their prescriptions, you must keep a running total of how many people are now taking the Belviq pills.
      So, as per your example...
      1st month is 2000 per week ,,,that equals 8000 patients .... for the 1st month
      2nd month has around 16000 patients(4k X4wks) plus the previous 8000 patients... so that would be 24,ooo Belviq users at the end of 2 months.
      And so on since many will be on the drug for more than 3 months.

      Just taking the 24000 using Belviq after 2 months, and each one paying around 180 per month... and then giving about half to ARENA makes revinues for ARNA at around 90 dollars times 24,000 patients = 2 million one hundred and sixty thousand dollars of monthly revenues.
      So if scripts 'Plateaued after the first 8 weeks, Then ARNA would be pulling down 2.16 million times 12 equals about 26 million in yearly revinues.
      Chances that sales will plateau after 2 months is really crazy, that ain't gonna happen

      Just wanted to remind everybody that what you have to deal with is the total number of customers using Belviq at any given time, and then multiply that number time about 3 bucks a day (which is about what ARNA gets from one customer per day.
      As you can see, by using this methodology, Belviq will quickly become a huge revenue stream for ARNA.
      In fact, both ARNA and VVUS may succeed. But of the two, I think ARNA will end up to be the best seller by far.

    • I agree with the market saturation point about peaking growth, but I think we hav a very long way to go before that is even a thought. Phentramine does 150k scripts a week. If Belviq was doing that we would be looking at blockbuster status with sales over $1.5 billion. A some point the big boys will open up the flood gates on recommendations and we will start to see numerous buy railings and higher price targets. That will be when we see the real stock price movement.
      Lets also not forget the potential of news on a Phentramine or Metaformin combo study.
      Belviq has real world application potential outside of weight loss.
      And even though that market is huge, when you add in potential diabetic control potential and nicotine craving suppression, the market just keeps getting bigger.
      Off label scripts are all well and good for our botto line, but legitimate backing for additional uses are huge.
      Looking for script numbers between 2200-2500 this week and close to 3,000 next week.
      Hoping we pass VVUS on weekly scripts by August.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Exponential growth will happen for a while and then there will be saturation. However it could take several years for saturation to occur. So you might be sort of correct, except that sales growth may tend to slow after a couple of years. Still the potential is very high for Belviq and I think ARNA's share price will soar over the next couple of years. jmho

    • Holiday week last week should impact scripts by at least 20%, for the forth.
      I expect script data to be flat, followed by surge next week of another 20-25%.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • By this compounding effect (20% growth rate week-over-week), sales at Week 40 will be $3 billion (per RG1 from IVMB):
      "1 2000 400000
      2 2420 484000
      3 2928 585640
      4 3543 708624
      5 4287 1000 857436
      6 5187 1210 1037497
      7 6277 1464 1255371
      8 7595 1772 1518999
      9 9190 3144 1837989
      10 11120 3804 2223967
      11 13455 4603 2691000
      12 16281 5569 3256110
      13 19699 7739 3939893
      14 23836 9364 4767271
      15 28842 11330 5768397
      16 34899 13709 6979761
      17 42228 17588 8445511
      18 51095 21282 10219068
      19 61825 25751 12365072
      20 74809 31159 14961737
      21 90519 38702 18103702
      22 109527 46830 21905480
      23 132528 56664 26505630
      24 160359 68563 32071813
      25 194034 83961 38806894
      26 234782 101593 46956341
      27 284086 122928 56817173
      28 343744 148743 68748779
      29 415930 180979 83186023
      30 503275 218984 100655087
      31 608963 264971 121792656
      32 736846 320615 147369114
      33 891583 388944 178316627
      34 1078816 470622 215763119
      35 1305367 569452 261073374
      36 1579494 689037 315898783
      37 1911188 834735 382237527
      38 2312537 1010030 462507408
      39 2798170 1222136 559633963

      $3,222,652,836.81 "

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Next weeks numbers may be off do to holiday..
      But if we resume 20% growth week the following week, we will know we are on to something.

    • That is a creative way to apply the Rule of 72. You might be on to something though.

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2.13+0.01(+0.47%)Nov 25 4:00 PMEST