I have no interest other than providing information. I have no phantasmal aspirations that what I post will affect the price of Arena. Your bashing will not elicit a response from me. Having said that we must realize we are at the seminal beginnings of a great company that has not changed in its potential as a breakthrough in the treatment of obesity and its attendant morbitities and as adjunct treatment for T2DM, if not a primary treatment. I am obviously as disappointed as anyone in the ability of wall street corruption to go unhindered but it can only go on for so long and here's why (I took the liberty to copy and post this from IV because it is consistent with what is still in play):
1. Belviq US Sales growth continues and/or accelerates;
2. Belviq continued partnership;
3. Canadian approval;
4. Mexican approval;
5. Swissmedic may approve;
6. South Korea approval and sales;
7. Bel-Phen trials;
8. Bel-phen Approval;
9. Pipeline advance;
10. Institutional investors growing;
11. Shorts covering;
12. Retail/Investors continuing to accumulate or repurchase shares at attractive prices;
13. Insurance Continues to cover;
14. Congress passes bill covering obesity medications;
15. States continue to add Belviq to coverage;
16. Buyout is always a possibility;
17. EU refile;
For day traders and recent investors this stock is a great disappointment but I am here for the long term and am willing to wait it out for one more year because I still have confidence in the science and it will prevail over corruption - been here since before the first Adcom Sept 2010.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Very good post, as always.
To me, the major difference will be when there is widespread insurance coverage, including Medicare. Then I believe there will be widespread usage. I do believe that the insurance is coming....prevention is a lot cheaper than the problems that even 30 pounds brings on.
Dropping HbA1c numbers by almost .1 in the Type II DM study group is not marginal, and cannot be ignored. Your bogus spin falls on deaf ears. You forgot to mention the FDA approved the drug. That's an FDA warning to BUY the stock.
Many failures come when idiots buy company stocks where product has REMS, company shareholders and management are in proxy fights, management sale their stocks and retailers left holding bags, and yet real idiots still keep pumping the same old trash with no morales...
Except we have executives who have never once stood up and aggressively defended this stock against the constant garage of attacks hurled at this drug and this company. Now Arena has a partner, Easai, that has executives who are almost as unskilled at defending Belviq as the Arena 'boys'! Friday will be a case in point. The July 4th holiday sales are sure not be up to expectations. Would it be appropriate to formulate a positive response, like Walmart has sold 2, 3, or 4,000 scripts to date that we know of, or any other positive information that will prevent the shorts from dragging the price of this stock down blow $6.00/share? I doubt it, but we can always hope!
You are an idiot that has no clue - none just a freakin talking head of BS! Your comments are so freaking stupid that an imbecile has a better understanding of how the process goes.
The only freakin way you defend any stock is by revenues and earnings. Arena or any company can only make statements that are accurate otherwise they put themselves in line for a class action lawsuit. Get freakin lost before I track your dumb butt down and do it for you. Idiot but you are now a contestant for the CR Stomp festival....
if prescriptions continue to grow at 20% week over week all doubts will be erased in a few short weeks. let the market speak. I like the fact the execs are not trying to pump the stock and sell out like the folks at vvus who REALLY hosed over their investors...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Good post. Question: have you met an Eisai rep? Have you seen any CE dinners from Eisai for Belviq? Any patients ask you for this drug or any colleague talk you can share with us? Thanks.
Dr.Dan, thanks for the nice post. I would like to keep it on top along with my thoughts. Some may be a repeat but felt listing it again.
(1).ARNA longs have overcome all difficulties viz, ADCOM-1|FDA-Approval(CRL)|Adcom2|FDA Approval
(2). If Belviq was not safe/efficacious fda would not have approved.
DEA would not have scheduled with 1V.
-- All shorts fud campaign regarding efficacy/scheduling etc ended there and lost it's bite.
Analyst s/Reporters like AF/Mathew Herper/Pharmalot//Oreilli etc lost their sting and had to find other ways.
(3).CR made a fool of itself by stating diet & exercise alone is enough whereas AMA declared Obesity a disease a couple of days later.
(4).VVUS does not have a partner yet for it's cocktail based on generics whereas ARNA is partnered with EISAI, which has experience launching blockbuster drugs.Q's restrictions may be tweaked but in the past 10 months, the docs did not find it worthy.It's script numbers are a proof.It 's biggest rival is the generics.
(5). AMA & AACE alongside Belviq.
(6). Even without much awareness among docs, the script nos look very good and in reallife no placebos, expect a good refill rate. Imagine this combined with DTC in a couple of months.
(7). BelMet & BelPhen will put Belviq as a leading Obesity drug Above are the facts.
US is the place where action is. Good to have sweden, eu etc but the core action is us.
The Hedgies bet on the wrong horse & they just would not like losing to retails.
The shorts thesis is poor sales.They will do everything to prove that their thesis is right.
The HF's may have media|analysts|bashers money but they will lose on "SALES" which is the last frontier.
They may bring down the pps but every dip shares are also being added by savvy buyers.
Again this is not a trading stock, I plan holding atleast a year or two.
Why would they want to bash a stock & walk down the pps. The shorts are nervous and every passing day,
imho it will be reward the patient investor
Excellent summary. Belviq is in its infancy in the market and all want the share price to skyrocket but like any good company it takes a while before its products catch on. There is no doubt in my mind as more academics recognize the cardiometabolic benefits of this unique 5-HT2c receptor agonist we will see more studies not only in T2DM but in addiction, metabolic syndrome, and possibly in fibromyalgia. As these studies start rolling out there will be more widespread knowledge of Belviq and the scripts will follow. We will see the success but like most successful companies it will take a little time. Academics in medicine focus on the health benefits and I believe there will be a plenitude of interest in performing the necessary studies to confirm the health benefits that have been shown already. The financial success will follow!!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy