The Short position has always counted on the MCAP and the 1.6 Billion number it is now at to be too lofty of a spot for a drug yet to be proven and a equity that has little to no earnings. In a smug way they waited it out and added to their position even as the drug was launched knowing in their mind that it would have to meet the top end estimates to justify the MCAP. With Fridays script numbers signaling a continuation in the growth, it created enough of a reason for at least one Institutional player(I don't know who yet) to take or add to their position and begin to challenge the low PPS. When Funds buy they most times do it as if an Elephant just walked in the room. This was not the case Friday as the new buyer seemed to be there as the hedge walked it back each time taking the shares as a gift from the Hedge. There was additional short covering also in the mix.
There have been several posts here over the last couple of days asking others to come in and short. Just an idiots point of view but those particular happenings tell me.
1.the short position fear is increasing.
2.an Institutional player is stalking the equity
They maybe just adding or starting a position but are not buying shares in big blocks like a Fund does. Instead Friday they were buying the pull backs and holding the PPS from any retrace. With 60 Million Shares short and an arrogant attitude they may have met up with another that is willing to roll the dice here and see if they can use that short position to make some money in an explosive way.
Mondays trading after the idiot hour will be the key. Any retrace that is met with buyers means the pressure and fear for the hedge increases. Remember that a .01 change in the equity is $600,000 difference to the short position. One Dollar difference is $60, 000,000? That is not chicken scratch.
Use to be hard to read the market for the day in that first window of regular trading. Most times that market is tilted as buy orders are dumped in from retail overnight decisions. Usually there is a short term lift followed by an immediate pull back as the hedge looks for resistance.
IMO the lynchpin is the script number to be released on 7-12. Expect the PPS to remain around 7 this week. If the scripts show significant growth, next week will see a rise back to 8 and possibly beyond.