Lets say that we average 10% script growth. ARNA would be on track to make around $15 million before yr end which is their 31% cut That is based on adjusting the IMS number by 30% to the upside. Scripts will probably be reported higher than this but let's just say the difference will be free scripts to offset the difference. Based on a continued 10% increase, that would be $250 mil for an entire yr. Next yr we will add more insurance coverage which will help even more. Thoughts or other calculations?
Based on this calculation next week IMS numbers would be 2750.
I think next week's numbers will 'surprise' and top 3000. The week after the 7/4-5 shutdown of MD's practices will have some carryover from the lower script writing count. People do not always hit the drug store first thing after a doctor's visit and a lot of people were traveling.
Ie., the scripts that did not get written on 7/4 and 7/5 likely meant fewer fills on Monday and possibly even Tuesday.
A nice 10% growth rate is fine by me --- slow and steady wins the race in most cases and so far i think were doing great --- ya we could be better if we had been advertising but i think eisai is working on that now -- im sure lookin forward to seeing some ads .. i think i read on here that stand operating procedure is to wait 6 months after launch to advertise -- not sure why that would be but when it starts i think we will see a surge in script numbers !!
let's not forget free scripts and % that Eisai gets, on top of other costs, big salaries, overhead, etc... 10% for a supposed fast growing company is not what investors wanted to hear, more like 30% will get you to 8