It is interesting to note the different PPS values presently with VVUS, OREX, and ARNA.
Belviq has a good start in Rx sales, no debt and financially healthy. OREX is not even approved yet, VVUS has what seems insurmountable debt and yet both continue to increase in PPS. Market caps aside there is, in my opinion, a reason why someone does not want Belviq to succeed - that reason is that it is not only a weight loss drug but a it is a T2DM medication, and possibly a T1DM drug, and the big pharma companies that have invested millions in their drugs do not desire the competition. Neither VVUS nor OREX pose a threat to the T2DM market, which is huge!!! The beauty of Belviq is that it IS a DM medication that decreases weight better than any T2DM drug in the market. There is strong evidence that it achieves glucose homeostasis apart from weight loss alone and you have the added benefit of weight loss. It is my opinion that these BP's do not want the competition - their drugs come with considerable expense and patient inconvenience and discomfort. Most of them are not go alone drugs and usually end up combining with metformin to maximize benefit. Well, Belviq does the same at much less expense and much better patient convenience and as a result compliance with treatment and it is safer than all the other T2DM drugs, all of which have serious concerns.
It is the science of Arena that worries the competition - and in the end the science will prevail.
This is opinion based on observation therefore I will not get into any arguments with anyone.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Now that this stock has lost over 60% of its value, and the market cap is BELOW VVUS, I wonder when the MM will move on. My guess is after the upcoming earnings beat, based on the Credit Suisse under-estimate of script sales (intentional most likely). Short have made a TON of money on this stock this year - that cant be denied, and yes, it was a well orchestrated walk down - bravo. But there is a story on Wall Street - Bulls, Bears, and Pigs. Right now, at 4.37 with Direct to consumer ads starting up in earnest, and another $75M in advertising costs yet to be spent -- there are only Pigs at the trough.
Are you suggesting BP is somehow manipulating the market cap of ARNA through... collusion with HF partners or are you saying BP is dissuading physicians from prescribing Belviq in the field? Or Both? Do you have ANY evidence of this mass collusion that requires the active participation of thousands of people coordinating their activities across multiple professions (pharma sales, stock brokers, etc., etc.)? Dr. Dan stick to treating patients. You've done enough damage to average folks stock portfolios (and apparently your own portfolio) You labor under this theory that the merits of Belviq should be in lock step with the pps of ARNA. The two while connected are affected by independent variables and there is NO grand conspiracy against ARNA or Belviq. Conspiracies are just a lazy way to explain away something you don't understand.
Easy there todzun. What you're saying is that the PPS for arna is more or less based in performance rather than some grand plan by, well, everyone, to keep the stock price down. Crazy thoughts man, crazy thoughts. They don't go over well around these parts. Around here, if the price isn't going up it HAS to be a grand conspiracy. I mean, several million to the bottom line of arna by the end of the year should absolutely yield a multi billion dollar market capitalization, right?
where have you been tod? have you not been watching the interesting games played with the pps of arena? the weekly options taking money from people hoping to hit the jackpot on calls only to see the pps tank on Friday ..... certainly seems that there is someone holding the pps right in the range where they want it......... is it BP? as they stand to lose BILLIONS when Belviq catches on it certainly wouldn't surprise me if they are in on some sort of effort to control Arena/Belviq ....... not saying it is BP I have no proof........ might just be hedgies making raking it in while they can..... soon the water in the pot will start to boil and they will be forced to get out or get cooked .....
there is most definitely collusion against arna mkt cap as evidenced by short interest and when compared to historical price action with vvus. throw in the kramer/street/fraudsteen attack on arna and assume these kreeps are associated with hedge funds............. ozzie osborne from sleeping in alphapha fields is another frenemy of arna corp. with friends like him who needs enemies.
no collusion...........nonsense. dea took how long to classify ??? give me a break todzun.
No question that you are right Dan. Belviq will prevail for all the reasons that you have indicated. I would add a Bingo to that for "sknbmc". Belvic will not only prevail, but will be a blockbuster!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Perhaps you could persuade the local television studios in LA to interview you so you could explain the real advantages of Belviq to the world. It would then be possible for you to put the interview on YouTube where many other people will find it. I feel the so-called Facebook effect will become major issue in the eventual acceleration in interest by people conferring with their doctors.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
the real problem why Arna is so easily manipulated to undervaluation into the stone age is a lack of buyers. The SP has been so easily savaged because the relatively very low volumes .
The obvious reason for this is that at some point in time, ARNA management did so infuriated te WS gods that they became bent way out of shape and determined to destroy it come hell or high water. At the same time those of us that are able to understand the science became ever more determined to fight to either financial exaustion or the triumph and clarity of scientific superiority over FUD and BS. Whichever comes first we don't yet know.
What we do know is that after the victory in the battle for FDA approval, the dark forces have once gain been gaining the upper hand. Even the FDA victory was achived at a very high price so much so that it really is a pirrhic victory with Deerfield walking away with close to a $1 billion profit while the early investors still remained substantially underwater because of massive dilution that was required to raise enough funds to fight for the FDA approval.
Fast forward to now and what it all boils down to is revenues.
If Eisai manages to inspire the medical and insurance community into discovering the intrinsic value of this truely revolutionary drug and prescribe it in numbers large enough to shine disinfecting light over its real health benefits to cause a waterfall, then those earlier investors who understood the science will be somewhat vindicated and the evil forces against it will lick their wounds and move on to their next victinm. If Eisai fails, then ARNA marketing-wise incompetent management will be no match for the WS evildoers and and the believing investors wil get gored all over again.
For Arna investors to win, there must be a surge of new institutional buyers. For that to happen, Belviq must go viral and become prodigiousily used and make gobs of $ for both companies and their investors.
Dr. Dan I think you might of very well hit the nail on the head! With the pps stuck no matter what the script numbers are or how much they get from Eisai and other partners. A solid partner, no debt, $200 million in the bank and a pipeline in the making. The hoops Arena had to jump through and the DEA setting a new world record in scheduling the drug to what the FDA recommended! It just don't seem right.
Then there is Qsymia! Two generic drugs, horsesh#/* sales, no partner,$350 million in debt and a mutiny on the boardy! Yet the pps does not even come close to where it should be. $6.50
Orex! REALLY! Not even close to the market but like you said Qsymia and Contrave have no direct affect on diabetes so they aren't stepping on anyone else's toes.
Could you imagine if Pfizer or some other big pharma launched Belviq with everything this drug can do at the price it sells at..What would happen to their pps?
If someone does not believe in market manipulation they don't need not go any further than these three stocks right here. I believe Belviq will prove itself beyond a doubt and Arena will get the pps it deserves but with the potential this drug has and everything else rolling along the pps should be higher than it is!
Sentiment: Strong Buy