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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • sp500chartdotcom sp500chartdotcom Aug 2, 2013 11:04 AM Flag

    Driving forces behind scripts will change in character at some point

    The current driving forces for scripts are currently all constrained to arithmetic growth. Eisai reps can see 'X' number of doctors per week - that is a finite number with an upper limit. MD's who are writing scripts see 'X' number of patients per week - another finite number that is constrained to arithmetic growth.

    We will see mostly arithmetic growth for a while. That will result in a DECREASE in the percent growth per week. We were at about 8% this week. We will probably be around 7% next week. This is not due to any kind of failure in the launch. It is due to what the current driving forces are for a new launch.

    So, what could change this? It will take ORGANIC growth among both physicians and patients. This will be the result of doctor's conventions, casual conversation, results coming in that meet or exceed expectations and, eventually, when users who have lost enough weight to be NOTICED start to answer people's questions when asked how they did it.

    Even the BEST responders at this point are likely just starting to cross the threshold of 'noticeability'. Give it a few more months and the MD's will see it, the neighbors will see it and the co-workers will see it too.

    When these things start to happen, coupled with possible DTC advertising, exponential growth can take place. Until then it crawls up by a few hundred every week.

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