The current driving forces for scripts are currently all constrained to arithmetic growth. Eisai reps can see 'X' number of doctors per week - that is a finite number with an upper limit. MD's who are writing scripts see 'X' number of patients per week - another finite number that is constrained to arithmetic growth.
We will see mostly arithmetic growth for a while. That will result in a DECREASE in the percent growth per week. We were at about 8% this week. We will probably be around 7% next week. This is not due to any kind of failure in the launch. It is due to what the current driving forces are for a new launch.
So, what could change this? It will take ORGANIC growth among both physicians and patients. This will be the result of doctor's conventions, casual conversation, results coming in that meet or exceed expectations and, eventually, when users who have lost enough weight to be NOTICED start to answer people's questions when asked how they did it.
Even the BEST responders at this point are likely just starting to cross the threshold of 'noticeability'. Give it a few more months and the MD's will see it, the neighbors will see it and the co-workers will see it too.
When these things start to happen, coupled with possible DTC advertising, exponential growth can take place. Until then it crawls up by a few hundred every week.
200 reps is not enough to get the word out and Eisai has said they must hire more...I know eisai has said they want to all of the spec docs first but since they know who they are and have phone #s why in the world dont they make phone calls and send literature to them. Eisai probably has their e-mail address, they also know the front office people who could relay the belviq info....There are reports docs want reps to contact them so the word is getting out, Eisai needs to ramp up the contacts with spec docs
Eisai said they are bringing on 650 doctors per week and they currently have 3900 doctors that have scripted the drug. Would be nice to know how many they actually got on line vs. how many are actually scripting. In 5 weeks we will have twice as many doctors and in 10 weeks we will have 3 times as many doctors. I think that will add into your thesis.
SP: Yep---and thats why scripts are circumstantial until the next three months has cycled! When ya triple the doctors and bring them on line---then you will see the real results!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Nice well thought out post.
I keep reading that weeks 12 - 16 will be telling on how the drug is selling. That puts us in the time frame of September 7th - October 7th. My question is: What kind of script number do we need in the time frame of 7 September to 7 October to convince the world this drug really works?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Many are already convinced that it works, Eisai is spending real money because they know it works. I think the real question is where to the scripts need to be to get Wall Street off our backs and in this stock? The answer to that is many are already on our side and are investing in this company. In 11 more weeks we should be scripting 40,000 scripts per month and that number is a great number and puts us where Qsymia is today. Also falls in line with Eisai prediction that we will surpass them in the near future. That will send a really big message, will it send a big enough message to get the shorts and the bears off our backs? Probably not because they will stay in the trade until it is to late and be trapped even more... It is at this point I think we will start to see real traction of Belviq. We will have success stories and doctors will be reading about the success in their professional journals.... It would be safe to say that in 3 more months we should then be scripting at over 80,000 scripts per month. The key is it will have taken us less then a year to get here.....
John, One of Spencer Osborne articles (21 June) stated if we hit 40,000 script within 3 months, we should be able to arrive at the goal of 250 million in sales. This would trigger additional milestone payments from Eisai. The numbers are looking good for making that goal at week 12.
If sales continue to go up Weeks 12-16 is the tell. It's all about getting to the ultimate goal of 250 million in sales during the first 12 months.
Sentiment: Strong Buy