I believe these factors were involved for this trend:
1) Few dieting in the summer.
2) Only 200 reps.
3) Limited insurance coverage.
4) Limited awareness by general public or doctors.
5) Easi seems to be taking a conservative approach to roll-out.
I things will change starting in 2014:
1) Increased insurance coverage.
2) Increased awareness thru DTC, social media and word of mouth.
3) Doctor's being educated about Belviq through reps, conferences and dinner presentations.
4) PCP doctors more comfortable about prescribing since Belviq will be on the market for 9-10 months.
5) Science rules in the end.
We know that Belviq works not only for weight reduction but for lower A1C levels! It seems we are hearing about most responders than previously thought.
Shorts will take advantage of the initial script numbers. I believe this will end in a few months.
I am holding my shares for the future!
Have ya heard the term "time heals all"? Well it applies to drug commerializations when ya got a good drug. Well we got a good drug and giant markets and time here has barely begun to march on! Your first four reasons contribute a bit to any rollout of a ne med. Your fifth is not likely true--its just a step-by-step process thats going slowly only in investors minds.
Regarding your changes, they will continue to evolve even this year and really proliferate next year.
You are correct, we have a good drug and we barely began marching on. Commercialization of any new drug usually does take time before awareness and acceptance. Expectations were set too high and the shorts are taking advantage of this with the weekly IMS data. I feel we will get the "hockey stick" numbers in early 2014.