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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • johnrambo777@rocketmail.com johnrambo777 Sep 9, 2013 9:17 AM Flag

    OSBORNE ARTICLE TODAY: CLASSIC GARBAGE IN- GARBAGE OUT

    Spencer, it's time you are called out again. I have repeatedly criticized your disingenuous articles about ARNA in the past. It's easy because you always seem to make the same mistakes over and over again, missing the bigger picture.

    You seem obsessed about Belviq's weekly prescription trajectories, gross and net revenues, and imaginary milestones that you have misinterpreted on your own. Not once have you ever integrated in your calculations the $136 Million milestone payments Arena has received from Eisai. Like it or not, Spencer, this is REAL INCOME for ARNA. Why do you ignore that? Have you ever thought about a non-GAAP earnings report amortizing in this income over the next 5 years?

    If this real (in the bank) NET ARNA income is amortized over 5 years, that's an additional $2.27 Million a month, or $27 Million a year! Add your very tenuous and questionably derived $10 Million earnings a year (which is ridiculously low), and you get $37 M a year income. With 220M shares outstanding, this company would have a P/E of 5.94. Given a conservative average market weight multiple, this stock should be a legitimate share price TODAY of at least $18-22 a share, and that ignores it's game changing potential income impact of food service company income, the tobacco industry, medical device makers, and last but not least, the big pharmaceutical companies.

    We aren't going into the Titanic scenario for Qysymia- VVUS from multiple pathways, or the pie in the sky glimmer of hope for FDA approval (maybe so, maybe not) for Contrave-OREX in the future as competition.
    You never obsess over their futures.

    If you are going to be a healthcare journalist, we suggest you take the bigger picture and relax. The real money is not going to be made shorting this stock.

    Your friend,
    John Rambo

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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ARNA
3.57-0.01(-0.28%)Dec 24 1:00 PMEST

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