Let's think about back when Fen/Phen was all the rage for a second
In the mid 1990's Fen/Phen was THE thing for weight loss. There were 18 million scripts being written for it during its peak year, 1996. It was withdrawn from use in 1997 due to the non-specific manner in which the Fen component affected both serotonin AND heart valve tissues.
The 'phen' part of the dual drug was never the real issue. It was the 'fen' that was the culprit. Lorcaserin (Belviq) is a redesigned chemical that specifically targets the hunger receptor while having no effect on the heart valves. Over 8000 patients have been rigorously studied with this safety issue in mind. There have been no statistically significant differences between Belviq and placebo as it relates to the heart issues.
Now, 1996 was 17 years ago. The world is a little different now.
In 1996 people were just starting to find out about the internet. Netscape was a hot stock. Yahoo and Google did not exist. Online speeds in the home were throttled by 56k modems.
The population of the United States was about 50-60 million FEWER than today. The obesity rate in 1996 was not 33%. It was about 26-27%.
So, with a smaller population and a lower obesity rate, Phen/Fen STILL managed to reach 1.5 MILLION scripts per month or about 350,000 scripts per week.
In 2013 we have 20% more people, a 20% higher obesity rate and diabetes affecting more and more of the aging baby boomer population.
We DO still have the stigma of the failure of Phen/Fen as a SAFE combo. But, we also now have the SCIENCE of Arena Pharmaceuticals who have developed what appears to all non-biased observers as the SAFE version of the 'fen' counterpart. If the stigma can be overcome, then Belviq and/or Bel/Phen have a treatable population that is nearly FIFTY PERCENT larger than the treatable population that existed in 1996.
How come no more charting?? I would think if it's a useful tool you would be able to show us how low we drop before reversing. Since the $2 level pre PDUFA there was nothing but a steady climb so there isn't many support points. Hopefully $5.72 is the new low. We will need to retest it several more times to be able to count on it.
ARNA has been a 'bad actor' lately. I have been trading X, KNDI, F, BCRX, DRWI, JKS and MAKO and others with the chart working great. ARNA has had some nasty surprises. I think I know what is going on with it, but I am not willing to stick my neck out on it again for anyone but myself.
BTW, charts also work when things get bad. VVUS may rally back to just under 12 but should start a fresh leg down from that pull back.
5.72 should be the low for now. The question is... when does the 13 month long resistance line break? That line was in the mid 9's in early Spring. Today it is just a hair over 8 or so.
While ARNA has been trading down that has been the one slightly silver lining. The level that needs to be breached in order for the next level to be reached has ALSO been getting lower and lower.