I am so tired of all of these articles downplaying Arena's sales numbers. And this guy Spencer Osborne is the root cause. Supposably a long investor. Every article that is written, References his damn IMS numbers. They don't take the time to use the actual numbers to include the 30%.
See what I mean, here is Spencers lastest article "Script numbers as reported by IMS Health could, this week, top 4,000 for the first time. What we will want to see is the sales figures hit 5,000 in two or three weeks."
Sales are actually above 5000, but when other write about Arena sales they will say they are just above 4000. I believe I say a article recently that sales with in the 3000 range. Does it make a difference, I say it does. Get a clue Osborne
Sentiment: Strong Buy
everybody seems to forget that wall street backed the wrong horse and got caught flat-footed, but this is THEIR game, just as any handyman has his little tricks to fix things when they go wrong...so do they.While everyone has been down playing every aspect and headline...institutional ownership has increased.This stock will run...when they want it to...they're not done stealing everyone's shares yet
Yet the tide is turning.. This was SO's most positive article in recent history. Notice the script sales chart is gone. His Hedge fund buddies must be just about out of their short positions. Soon SO will be plugging ARNA, since SO is probably accumulating a long position as we speak.
I agree with what your saying.
This is a Spencer Osborne response to a question from user name "Moral Investing" today about his article.
As I have stated, much of what I write is geared toward near and mid term movement. It is more geared toward active trading. I do not trade this equity this way myself.
Waiting for the dust to settle is simply a strategy of seeing the trend reverse. Why buy in today when there is not yet a clear indication that the downtrend has reversed? If we see a reversal then a buy in could make perfect sense.
As for my model....
It would appear that you are stating that Eisai and Arena lack the basic understanding of what it takes to roll out a diet drug. I have stated several times now that the model was designed off of the parameters set by Eisai.
Why would ANY long say NOT to BUY at these low levels.
I don't trust SO
Very interesting. So generally speaking a person can have enough shares to call himself a long -- who would believe an author if he said he were short or had no position on the sidelines -- while hoping for it to go down so he can buy. I haven't read his article so I can't judge what he's done but based on what you said it might apply. I try not to click his articles. I don't like supporting his Arena Diarrhea.