Everyone jumped on the bandwagon last week because of the holiday and lower scripts + rightfully so, HOWEVER, everyone is now touting the big 15% jump from that same holiday period. Comparing the numbers from 2 weeks ago we are barely up, and that is what counts. All the pom pom people need to get a life posting every 2 min just like the idiot bashers. Dano is out touting we hit 7.50 today then 13 based on what?!?!? and of course everyone gives him a thumbs up, why? He's spreading FUD just like the basher group. This is a long term play not a short or intermediate play. We won't see big rises until traction takes hold on DTC which won't be for another 2 months. Until then we are held hostage to the short brigade + old Adam who hates the stock because they did what he said would never happen, get approval, so he bashes any chance he gets. Options were in play and if you watch there were almost 1400 contracts 2 days ago on the 6 calls. They want that cash so the MM's will keep it below 6 period.
The shorts are toast + are wrong, well reality is they have been right as the stock is at 52 week lows people so they have been making money not the longs. All the pom pom people have been saying shorts are toast since the stock was above 8, well wrong. Long term they will be toast but they are still in play and will be for at least another 2 months. They will lose long term but they did make bank short term or for that matter long term if they shorted 6 months ago.
This will take time to play out but ARNA will win in this space. VVUS did come out with a query to the euro group on what they need to do to get approval in the EU, BUT, even if its spelled out for them, where are they going to get the cash to conduct the trials??? They don't have it + IF they proceed in EU they will need to do another secondary. They are on the cusp of BK as no BP will sign up. Topamax is already engaged in class action lawsuits and is on TV to file suit. Too bad this is a dysfunctional MB.
depends on which numbers you look at. I wasnt impressed with the IMS number; however, the Symphony number Im hearing was over 5000, which Im not sure if that is accurate or not. But remember symphony came in double IMS one week before and it took the IMS number 2 weeks to catch up. so the growth was bigger than the IMS number show, but I agree. the pumper are out of hand.
mario- valid post for most part. distinction; as shorts have been making $, the smart retail longs have been adding shares at lower prices...........had pps not been driven down by illegality/criminal collusion (imo) then those smart longs i reference would have had smaller quantity of core, not going to sell, shares. hence,,, in longer run,,,,,,,, thanx to criminal shorts........im gonna realize much larger profit than i originally planned.
anyway......... hoping esai comes up with some video ads for mass media that blow the roof off the house.
PS, OREX doesn't have a drug on the market + it will be a long haul for them but they do have a larger marketing partner, based on market cap BUT all the analysts saying they are well positioned including CS which has them as a buy, are wrong. By the time they get, if they get, their drug to market, belphen will be approved with a better safety profile + better efficacy. Then add in the pipe here and ARNA is the clear winner in the space. I wish this was a normal MB + people posted with facts as they see them, right or wrong, as opposed to 1 line crapola pro or con. Areniacs is a true term as they aren't many MB's that are this crazy. I'm long because IMO the company is well positioned with a great drug on the market, a great pipe, and a great research group, although IR and the BOD leaves a lot to be desired. They are great as far as development but have no clue on running a large corp. I'd love to see a large institution come in + shake things up + put more credible people on the BOD to run the company.
This week was nothing more than a week to get past the slow summer months. Word of Mouth and DTC ads are going to start kicking in and as scripts and revenue continue to rise, the short argument becomes less and less coherent.
So when do you see the pick up? We have been close to steady on scripts with no real increases in the last 3 weeks. When do you see the DTC campaign affecting sales? Do you believe that the current ads will drive sales soon? IMO this initial foray was sent out to increase consumer awareness about the drug and not rile the FDA as far as pressing the issue. IMO they will start heavy DTC marketing by Dec or the 1st of the year once they have laid the groundwork about the drug's efficacy and put on a hard course press to drive sales. They did state early on that the company focus was on a drug that was proactive with a healthy diet + exercise program to reduce eight loss and type II diabetes and were not another hyped up infomercial to reduce weight loss.
As I've said many times, IMO this is a long term 4 bagger but a short/intermediate term stagnant player. As I've said, I stay invested because a buy out "could" occur at any time, otherwise I would have stayed on the fence for the past year. There are too many forces keeping this down + unless sales pick up dramatically soon there is nothing to move the needle higher.
And can I get another 1000 thumbs down for not saying sales would be 10BB in a year + the PPS would be 1000 next week like most of the pom pom queens. IMO we will hit 20/share BUT it won't happen till sometime late next year. These wild 50+ projections are not plausible but an increase in market cap to over 4BB, while a stretch is attainable, based on ramping sales on B + the pipe potential.