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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • stockvadar stockvadar Oct 25, 2013 9:56 PM Flag

    Gap between IMS and Symphony is very curious, Stockvadar-studies

    Investors.

    The gap between unadjusted IMS and Symphony unadjusted is very curious because a trend between the two has been holding relatively steady.

    This week 17.50%
    Prior week 19.22%
    Prior week 19.26%
    Prior week 15.57%
    Prior week 14.67%
    Prior week 17.03%

    I read people saying IMS is -30% under, and Symphony -20% under, but this doesn't make any sense. Over the last 6 weeks the gap is an average 17.21%. Since we know IMS and Symphony don't get Walmarts figures and some other major pharmacies, there is something terribly askew here.

    For example, that means unadjusted IMS is more like 37% vs 30% and Symphony more like 27% vs 20% to maintain a 10% gap between these two reporting agencies. Or if you went the opposite direction Symphony would be unreporting by 13% and IMS 30% that is, to close the gap. BTW, I have enough mental problems just trying to be -sv (It was a great day today! and I think things are looking up!)

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    • IMS Health and Symphony are only a guide… as they both product figures with incomplete data, so expect better numbers than reported in the upcoming 3Q earnings announcement. As far as I know, Wal-Mart does not sell its prescription records to any third-party data provider and I’m not sure about CVS if they have recommenced with providing data.

      In a report carried out by IMS Health on How the Pharmacy Industry Changed it states in the report that “Chains won big again, growing six times faster than the overall industry”.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Now I don't claim to be an expert on IMS, or Symphony, but curiosity will lead me to study these two outfits further. I beg the question? What is the purpose of these two organizations, who benefits from the info they provide, do they sell their research data to whom, where does their revenue come from? Just trying to find out who they serve, and who/what puts the peanut butter on their bread? They data seems suspect, weak accuracy of information, incomplete reporting seems to be a fact. Alcoholic says; I only had one drink but failed to tell you it was a 1/2 gallon jug! Just my analogy of what they are reporting.

      • 1 Reply to steveh8000
      • Steve, I do not know about IMS; however, I trust Symphony script numbers. I think that the scripts will give Eisai marketing team a sense on how B is progressing over time and whether or not they need to make any adjustments going forward to reach their target sales. In addition Eisai know exactly how many bottles they are delivering to the wholesalers over time. Based on the above two parameters, Eisai then can calculate the reported scripts adjusted percentage and the final number they have should be very close to actual. I don't think that Eisai will be willing to share their adjustment figures because that would be an internal number for them to use in making final marketing decisions for B.

    • SV, in the last CC, Jack indicated that IMS scripts are approximately 75% from actual. I have been saying 100% / 75% = 1.34 multiplier or 34% adjustment. if you include the unreported Wallmart #s, the % will be even higher.

    • jj eom

 
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