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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • sp500chartdotcom sp500chartdotcom Oct 26, 2013 2:21 PM Flag

    Somebody show me what a successful drug launch looks like

    And show me the numbers.

    Show me what a well-known and successful novel drug was doing after the first 20 weeks. But, leave sex out of the picture. The hype and media circus that surrounded Viagra puts it in a class of its own.

    Show me a successful diabetic treatment and how IT was doing in the first 20 weeks. And, please, back it up with actual numbers.

    I have this funny feeling that almost nobody here can respond to my post with anything of real substance, especially those that are claiming that Belviq is a failure.

    All I am asking is this, if Belviq is a failure, then show me what a SUCCESS looks like at 20 weeks in.

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    • It's apple to oranges. You cant compare without looking at sales force size and you cant compare revenue without considering cost of drug. I launched Imtrex which did more rx BUT the sales force was 3k. Being up close and personal I would say the launch has been decent. I don't think Esai is a great marketing company. They do not motivate the reps to sell but a lot of that is fear of FDA.

    • SP500, Here was a successful launch of new drug, INCIVEK┬« (telaprevir). FDA approved it on 5/23/2011. Vertex Pharm launched it with about 115 sales person team then and had a revenues of $75 million by 6/30/2011. Vertex reported INCIVEK┬« (telaprevir) sales of $420 million in its 3Q 2011 financial results, its first full three month sales. It was probably one of the best new drug launches in the history even though its recent quarter sales revenue was less than half of that.

      • 4 Replies to tomyun2013
      • yes Vertex had a great launch with INCIVEK.
        but we are comparing apples and people weighting to by apples
        As a new HepC treatment it provided hope to a large pool that had not responded to other treatments and some of them had waited years to get that drug. the real comparison is in the scrip count to potential population.
        there are about 3.2m hcv+ in the usa thats 1.8% of population and 1500 scripts =.05%.
        arna has100m obese people in the us 30% of our population and did like 10K scripts in the first month = .01%

        Vertex launch beat arna by 0.04% points, although most of vertex hcv patients had either failed a treatment or been told that the genome type of hcv they had could not be treated intill vertex drug got approved. i believe that vertex patients were more motivated and already on track to receive treatment prior to launch.

        jest my two cents
        and i suck at math so Caveat emptor.

      • What was the situation with the health insurance companies? Was this a vital drug that they covered from the get go, or did it take a while before they would cover it?


      • you are giving financials...what were the script sales in volume? This drug retails for $49,200 for a 12 week program. Just a quick number crunch using your first comment of $75 million by 6/30/11...that is $75,000,000/$49,200 (cost of 12 week program) equals 1525 treatments in that timeframe.

      • Now that is a successful launch. Did they have a lot of resistance in the medical community around the drug and its predecessors?

    • You guys hit it right on the nail head...Eisai is doing a fine job...This just BP sees this and it will not take long for them to make a hostile for arna, NO way will BP let little eisai get all of arna..NO WAY

    • Funny thing SP this is the exact question that should be asked. I suggest watching this one closely for all the youngins out there. The information is out there but its an amalgamation of many launches.

      This is a good launch whether we hit 150 mil or not by Dec 31 is sorta irrelevant. The effect of DTC can be measured. I posted a link previously but every $28 spent on DTC can result in a unique physician visit requesting a script (from the entire class). Belviq ads will benefit the whole class including q. The slow roll built confidence in belviq. Patients (pun) is all that is needed enjoy because DTC is coming with both barrels soon and we will see more effect this coming friday.

      There is no question that this drug can be sold and the right marketing will sell it . . . and "time" which most retail don't understand reinforces safety and effectiveness. DTC is most effective as physicians have access to some knowledge of its use and with 40-60K patients now using it they will. The innovator physicians will become educators. The fact that responders are identified so early only makes me more confident that its about to go viral.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to surfer50st
      • edimartino Oct 27, 2013 11:53 AM Flag

        Surfer one of the few posters worth reading thanks first of all. I agree with your post and feel when the real story get's told and the 3% bs gets refuted time and time again we will see years of growth. The only thing I do not want to see is an early buyout at under 40.00 a share. This drug works and it is obvious that many are losing 30-40 lbs over three to four months. The biggest thing is while many wish to lose weight they are unable to exercise at current weight levels. Once we see people using weight loss to get to a point where exercise is possible we will have a better climb. We also need to recognize that all doctors can script this gp's,cardiologists,endo's,weight loss and doctors that flat out care for their patients. God forbid we have other off labels uses or combo's. Patience is the key five years long and willing to hold ten more years.

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