from the bashers and the Jack haters.... We are over 10k on IMS and half way to 13k on symphony and we beat all of the obesity agents and Q again. We keep taking market share week after week. 2,597 commercials since the launch of the TV ads on April 15th. Sales reps can now tell reluctant doctors that Belviq has been on the market for over a year an not one single major event has been reported. This is bigger then folks here want to let on. I think that is why the bear raid now. This quarter will turn out to be a very big quarter, YoY and QoQ we will have seen scripts up significantly, insurance coverage needle will move up again, total doctors that have scripted the drug will be close to 50,000. That is a very large base of doctors that will have dipped their toe in the waters.
I dont hate JL but think he is a bad manager..His excited comments are an example and then he sells 224k shares...We get approval from fda and then he dilutes again...He doesnt know how to treat ws or shareholders at all..NEVER has any of the management bought in the open market which would show confidence in arnas future...All JL can say is the canned phrase, im diversifing . Arna and eisai are bleeding cash, eisai needs help from BP who would have the fire power to make belviq a success because it does work, im taking it and have lost huge amounts of weight...it gives one the will power to control eating. This is the key...BUT, many drugs that have worked have done nothing because the companies dont have the money to promote them ...Arna is just an r&d company thus in the scheme of things BP could by them out and partner with eisai and rework any agreement to reflect costs..Arna is not needed any more, in fact arna is a ball and chain around eisai neck..ROW belongs to eisai now and they have not made any progress because they dont have the fire power, thats where BP comes in
I am unsure why people keep bringing up JL's sell of some of his shares. It was a pre-determined amount for a pre-set date a year ago. It's old news and not like he panic'd and sold off in fear. Go read up on it. Would people still be talking about it if the stock was $20 and climbing? JL didn't know if shares were going to be $6 or $60 on the set sell date.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
lukb4ujump great post, it's sad because well this has to happen. WS will not let ARNA cork upward because well its WAY to easy for them to pick up cheap shares. They won't stop the propaganda until their $4 shares dry up, once they do, they will milk $5 shares, once that stops $6.. It's pretty obvious. Me personally, I don't care if the stock is $4 or $14 today they can play their games all they want with fake retail longs. Until we are $20+ I am not even considering dropping a single share of mine.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The massive FDA warnings for Belviq are a CYA because the panel of good doctors did not have sufficient knowledge relating to GPCR drugs. Now, Lorcaserin is being recognized by the trillion dollar drug industry as the next great step in modern medicine. I am very long ARNA.
The sale of ARNA stock by insiders doesn't bother me. It is the way they are paid. The cavemen still don't want to swallow that crow they must eat and accept the monetary loss caused by stupid analysts.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The concept of market sure bandied about on this board is a misconception. How are you defining the market? Two obesity compounds going head-to-head? With total sales of what 25M? That kind of a comparison is leading you down the worng rabbit hole and to conclusions that will not aid you in your investment. This is a weight loss/lifestyle category that includes many things. That market is growing by hundreds of millions of dollars and millions of people a year. Who are you really competing against? Weight watchers? Gold's Gym? VVUS? Health food stores? The machine we call the "Healthcare System?"
If you compare yourself to mediocrity forever you will only feel like you are succedding while you get led to slaughter. Bewing the best sheep led to slaughter still gets you dead.
The market is so infantile it has no size or shape and I have never heard any professional or executive in this space talk about market share in a piece or presententaion or interview. Only here and only by a few posters.
Who are you really competing against?
a) Weight watchers?
b) Gold's Gym?
d) Health food stores?
e) The machine we call the "Healthcare System?"
I'll take (e) for twenty.... but including in the machine we call: "food processing and pharmaceutical industry and healthcare system"...... (a, b, and d) are complimentary with Belviq..... (c) V and O are set up as the competition by shallow lazy media when the largest selling weight loss drug is still good old phen solo (which is also complimentary to Belviq).... the fixed-dose combo-wonders do provide some free advertising into obesity treatment options and provide a nice comparison (once people see the fine print) so not really an issue for now..... BP is the ultimate threat.
Go pull my old post "Break down of this 6473 reveals a potential trend starting to show" 9 months ago. IT will clearly show you I am referring to the entire obesity agent market not just Belviq and Qsymia... But I have stated this before in the past and you know it.
Fact. PPS down 12% past 5 days. Fact PPS down 13% YTD! WS obviously doesn't see A or B in the same light as we longs do. I wish I were out but I still believe it'll run up within 2 years so I'm all -in for the duration.