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The ADT Corporation Message Board

  • ajayyyyyyyy ajayyyyyyyy Dec 14, 2013 2:58 PM Flag

    Observations and notes on Short and Options Activity for ADT.

    Short activity:
    SHORT Interest:
    • 2013 started with only 2-3M shares held short.
    • Since march short interest has gone up in every 2 week period on decreasing avg. daily volume.
    • Nov 15-29 showed the biggest jump (~12M) on the highest daily average volume this year (5.5M shares/day). The ADV was above 5M from Apr1-15, which also marked the beginning of short interest jumps.
    • Similarly, the 2 week period before vol. spike also marked the lowest ADV this year. (Nov1-5 had 1.9M ADV & March 15-30 had 1.6M)
    • Days-to-cover in Nov1P was 14, obviously this had to be lowered if the shorts were to have any chance of getting out.
    • Dec should mark the first decrease in SI. Check dec 15th data?

    These are some of the significant volume days for particular Options. I try to analyze short activity with options activity, timing bottoms, tops and volumes etc. to arbitrarily judge future implications.

    25TH OCT- APR$42CALL(750@3.45/311|1000)
    30TH OCT- APR$42CALL(800@3.8/1060|1830)
    25TH NOV-APRIL $42CALL(550@1.90|2350)

    2ND DEC- ’15$35PUT (500@2.30/91/592)
    4TH DEC- ‘15$50CALL (10,000@$1.60/400|10400) people willing to close OI in calls but not in puts
    4TH DEC- ‘15$30PUT (10,100@$1.1/162/10,262)
    6th DEC (end of day@3:55, FRIDAY)-
    JULY $40 CALL 500ct traded@ $3.45
    April $38 PUT 2500ct@1.3
    April $36PUT 2145CT@1.05
    APRIL $43 CALL 4000CT@1.75
    9th DEC(at open Monday)
    JULY $40 CALL 500ct traded@ $3.40. (OPEN INTEREST:1000)
    April $38 PUT 500ct@$1.8
    April $36PUT 1100CT@1.05
    APRIL $43 CALL 1000CT@$1.4
    13TH DEC-APRIL$44CALL (950@$0.7/1400/_____________)

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    • Looks like short interest has not gone done. This is prepped to take off anytime now. I'd recommend anyone to buy soon, load up at any price below $40. I'm looking for a 20% move in next 4 months.
      I'm long Jan $40 Calls @ $0.8 and April $43 Calls @$1.5

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