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Muscle Pharm Corp. Message Board

  • evanhowington evanhowington Apr 22, 2012 6:18 PM Flag

    savage

    is it possible for the UA deal to come half a year early?

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    • My apologies i thought you mentioned somewhere that you are holding until then. Perhaps i misinterpreted that as you were selling on that day.

      You are saying that all of this UA + MP info will come on that date. Any chance of it happening sooner?

    • No. i am saying that if you use the total number of shares available that can be put on the market as of right this second. with an expected $70M/year2012 earnings as PR'd you get ($70,000,000x1.6)/2,500,000,000 = dollars/share = .0448

      1.6 is a constant used multiplied by the current fair value which would be the sales..

      What i am saying is that because this is a possibility it scares a lot of investors..

      but if you truly believe they will buy back the necessary shares to gain control of the 51% of the majority, and if you believe that the sales numbers will get where the math points then that makes this pps a steal

    • They have until the end of the year for this buyback. It will be that plus much more!!!!

    • i read your posts and I definitely like them.. I will definitely put together a thought tonight on it and hit you back on this thread tomorrow.

      Also you might want to google MusclePharm and Trademarkia... and you can see a list of items they are trademarking for this year.. there is a large womens line coming labled "fit miss"

      also let me make a correction to the previous share price at $1.25.
      when determining the value of a company you do 1.6 X value which would give us $800,000,000 valuation which should put the pps at $2.00 with only 400,000,000 outstanding shares..


      I will message more tomorrow

    • Thank you very much..

    • my response to someone telling me a buy back is impossible due to not meeting demand... on iHub..

      "At this point that is completely accurate. I do not think that anyone expected to see sales numbers for 3 months almost equal to the entire previous year.

      However, if you look my previous number workup you can see that with Eurpac(1%estimate), 9000 retail stores, and the quarter sales we should have had of $23M thats $51,000,000/quarter.

      if you do a buy back of 1,000,000,000 shares(yes one billion) @ .02 that comes to $20,000,000 in share buy backs. Not to mention the psychological factor that will play on investors.... which would be an extremely good one..

      Also judging from their recent form of PR's it seems that they are now in the business of PR'ing things that are done, or practically finanlized.. i.e. ending derivative financing was reported just recently when it was initiated back in January. So why not start a share buy back then report it once it is complete..

      if you were conducting a share buyback program at these levels with the potential revenue stream, and number of O/S you would not want to announce this publicly because someone (large company) can come buy this potential $500,000,000 revenue stream for pennies on the dollar....

      with a current share price hovering around .02 i will use that with my calculation.. .02 X 1,260,000,000(roughly 51%, within the 1.4B o/s) = $25,000,000 to own a company that will most doubtedly sell that much in quarter 2... i think anyone looking at MP is trying to figure out how to buy this company.. but with 566Mshares in the Board's hands, and 1.1B not issued it is physically impossible.. with 1.6B shares in the company's control

      think about it.. even if they r/s right now the number of shares will change but the %'s will remain the same in regards to majority ownership of the company... they will still need to cancel the remaining a/s after a buy back, or simply award them to themselves through bonuses.

      If in the new compensation plan they are still receiving ridiculous bonuses like what we saw last year then i suspect the 1.1B remaining will be issued at bonus time( dont forget bonuses are based on an increase in sales over previous year.. therefore as soon as the back logged items were shipped an paid for they would be starting the counter for their bonuses to be issued at the end of the year.. and that was the beginniing of April!!!

      However, if they do not retain the same bonus structure, which I think this will be the case due to their statement of "long term incentives" i see a buy back then cancellation of remaining A/S...


      Everyone said I was way to extreme on my $20,000,000 prediction for qtr1.. and if they would have been able to keep up they would have surpassed me!

      The whole key to why I strongly see them doing this is not because it benefits shareholders.. but because it BENEFITS THEM MORE!!! give them the majority control with common shares!!


      (edit) side note at 400,000,000 shares after a buy back and cancel of remaining a/s
      using potential revenue stream of $500,000,000 and 400,000,000 shares outstanding that puts the pps at $500,000,000/400,000,000 = $1.25/share and everyone wins...

      This is the only scenario I can come up with where everyone wins from this level all the way up into dollar land.. "

    • what do you think?

    • The other 14 products have made me raise an eyebrow toward a protein bar as well. Same thing with EAS, Musclemilk, etc.. they have protein bars and energy bars. 2 bucks a bar, one bar a week is 104 bucks a person a year. You put a number on however many you think buy it, i say a million again just based off the Eurpac deal because again i don't think it is unrealistic to think 1 out 11 would purchase it. another 104 million in revenue. Individual buys are the way to go because they are convenient and EAS has made it's fortune off of them. I am willing to bet MP moves into this area and some QB is drinking MP post workout premade drink just like Brady Quinn does for EAS and Peyton Manning does for Gatorade crap.

    • 15 new products are expected to launch soon. I will take a guess and say one of them is going to be a premade protein drink. BSN, EAS, MuscleMilk, Gatorade, etc.. all have them. MP will have one as well i suspect and individual premade drinks sell very well because they are convenient and relatively cheap buys for people who are not serious supplement users. WIth an easy $2-3 dollar purchase i do not believe it is unrealistic to think 1 out 11 in the Eurpac deal will purchase this product atleast once a month. 24-36 bucks a year for a million people. 24-36 million in revenue from a pre made drink.. That is as conservative as i think it gets. If it was 1 drink a week we'd get 104-156 million from a premade drink just using the Eurpac deal. So if we said that a million people in general were to purchase these drinks then we'd still come to those numbers. Either way we need a premade protein drink and if we get i don't think anyone will be able to accurately predict revenue quarter to quarter because it will run off the charts.

    • I agree with revenue numbers and have a post to add to this but i'll have to break up for some reason because yahoo won't let me post it. However if MP is doing 250-500 million a year in revenue I doubt 1.4 billion shares will still be out. Maybe half that?

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